Steelers vs Saints: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 9:30 AM EDTWeek 7 · Neutral site

Kickoff forecast74°F2 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-2 · Power #17

projected

Sun 9:30 AM ET

New Orleans Saints

2-4 · Power #29

projected

PIT 61%

39% NO

Spread

PIT -3

open PIT -2.5

Total

44.5

model 45

Spread edge

NO by 0.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenPIT -2.5

CurrentPIT -3

Total42.5 → 44.5

Last update6:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenPIT -2.5

0.5 → PIT

NowPIT -3

0.5 pts toward Pittsburgh Steelers

Total

Open42.5

▲ 2

Now44.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened PIT -2.5 · now PIT -3 · moved 0.5 toward PITmodel PIT -2.5

model PIT -2.5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (24 games since 2025)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenPIT -2.5

CurrentPIT -3

Total42.5 → 44.5

Last update6:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	PIT	NO	Over	Under	PIT	NO
BetMGMMGM	-3.5-105	+3.5-125	44.5-110	44.5-108	-175	+145
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-3-117	+3-103	44.5-110	44.5-110	-179	+157
BetRiversBetRivers	-3-115	+3-106	44-114	44-107	-175	+143
BetUSBetUS	-3-120	+3+100	44.5-110	44.5-110	-179	+154
BovadaBovada	-3-120	+3+100	45-105	45-115	-180	+155
DraftKingsDK	-3-112	+3-108	44.5-112	44.5-108	-166	+140
FanDuelFD	-3-118	+3-104	44.5-112	44.5-108	-174	+146
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-3.5+105	+3.5-116	44.5-107	44.5-107	-179	+157
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-3-120	+3+100	45-110	45-110	-183	+148

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 6:54 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

7 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	PIT	NO	Over	Under
BetMGMMGM	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	12.5-1000	12.5+600
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	22-115	22-105
BetRiversBetRivers	-1.5-115	+1.5-108	22.5-122	22.5-103
BetUSBetUS	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	22-115	22-105
BovadaBovada	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	22-110	22-110
DraftKingsDK	-2.5-112	+2.5-108	22.5-108	22.5-112
FanDuelFD	-2.5-120	+2.5+100	22.5-110	22.5-110

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

PIT -3

NO +3

Bets43% 57%

Money47% 53%

Winner

PIT

Bets78% 22%

Money68% 32%

Money is 10 pts ahead of bets on NO

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 6 games most like PIT as a 3-point neutral-site favorite against NO, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

4 of 667%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

3 of 650%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 633%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 6 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 3.3; 34 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 6 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA vs WSH 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	16–13	W	U46.5
Close	MIN vs PIT 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	21–24	L	O41.5
Loose	LAR vs JAX 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	35–7	W	U43.5
Loose	DEN vs NYJ 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	13–11	L	U43.5
Loose	IND vs NE 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1	10–6	W	U42.5
Loose	KC vs LAC 2025 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3.5	21–27	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
PIT LWLWW	4-2	67%	—	3-1
NO WLLLW	3-3	50%	—	2-1

Venue/role: PIT neutral, as favorite; NO neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT UOOOO	4-2	67%	4-2
NO UOOUO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 510 games with totals 41.5–47.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
NO	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pittsburgh Steelers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 1	vs CLE	L24–27LO
Nov 15	@ CIN	W30–27WO
Nov 22	@ PHI	L13–27LU

New Orleans Saints

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs CLE	W35–14WO
Nov 15	vs CAR	W20–17WU
Nov 22	@ CHI	L14–26LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

PIT 2–4 NO NO leads · 6 games since 2002 · PIT has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−0.5 →+0.2▲ 0.7#17

NO−1.2 →−2.6▼ 1.4#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

PIT

Longer bar = better

#21

Offense

Even

#19

Defense

◀ PIT better

#29

+0.5 #10

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

−0.5 #23

64 plays #10

Pace

NO faster ▶

67 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: PIT offense

	PIT off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #18	29.7 #31	PIT
Yards / play	5.01 #21	5.84 #27	PIT
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	+0.07 #25	Even
Success rate	41% #23	49% #31	PIT

When NO has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	NO off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #11	21.3 #12	Even
Yards / play	4.80 #23	4.99 #8	PIT
EPA / play	−0.05 #20	−0.06 #5	PIT
Success rate	42% #20	42% #7	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	5.2 #8	5.3 #22	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	8.8 #5	11.2 #20
NO allowed	6.8 #31	6.0 #12	12.8 #23	6.2 #25	9.5 #30	15.7 #28

NO scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	9.5 #1	7.7 #15	17.2 #2
PIT allowed	5.0 #17	8.5 #25	13.5 #27	3.0 #4	4.8 #5	7.8 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.