Broncos @ Cardinals: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Arizona Cardinals

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

4-2 · Power #16

projected

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Arizona Cardinals

2-4 · Power #28

projected

DEN 65%

35% ARI

Spread

DEN -4.5

open DEN -7.5

Total

43.5

model 44

Spread edge

ARI by 2

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenDEN -7.5

CurrentDEN -4.5

Total43.5

Last update6:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenDEN -7.5

3 → ARI

NowDEN -4.5

3 pts toward Arizona Cardinals

Total

Open43.5

no move

Now43.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened DEN -7.5 · now DEN -4.5 · moved 3 toward ARImodel DEN -2.5

model DEN -2.5

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: ARI by 5.1 pts (open +7.5, now +4.5). In 2025–2026, with a 4+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 67.6% of the 37 games where the line moved (44 at that gap), but those sides covered 27.3% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 50% (101 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 31% (55 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenDEN -7.5

CurrentDEN -4.5

Total43.5

Last update6:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	DEN	ARI	Over	Under	DEN	ARI
BetMGMMGM	-4.5-108	+4.5-110	43-120	43-110	-225	+185
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-4.5-110	+4.5-110	43.5-105	43.5-115	-220	+186
BetRiversBetRivers	-4.5-113	+4.5-109	43.5-107	43.5-115	-240	+190
BetUSBetUS	-4.5-110	+4.5-110	43.5-105	43.5-115	-220	+185
BovadaBovada	-4-115	+4-105	43-105	43-115	-220	+180
DraftKingsDK	-4.5-110	+4.5-110	43.5-112	43.5-108	-238	+195
FanDuelFD	-4.5-108	+4.5-112	43.5-110	43.5-110	-230	+190
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-4-105	+4-105	43.5-107	43.5-107	-220	+186
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-4-110	+4-110	43.5-110	43.5-110	-216	+173

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 6:54 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

7 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	DEN	ARI	Over	Under
BetMGMMGM	-2.5-120	+2.5+100	11.5-1100	11.5+650
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-3-105	+3-115	21.5-105	21.5-115
BetRiversBetRivers	-2.5-129	+2.5+104	22.5-117	22.5-106
BetUSBetUS	-3-105	+3-115	21.5-105	21.5-115
BovadaBovada	-3+100	+3-120	21.5-105	21.5-115
DraftKingsDK	-2.5-120	+2.5+100	21.5-112	21.5-108
FanDuelFD	-3.5+105	+3.5-125	21.5-110	21.5-110

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

DEN -4.5

ARI +4.5

Bets64% 36%

Money61% 39%

Winner

DEN

ARI

Bets91% 9%

Money85% 15%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 4.5-point road favorite at ARI, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

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games

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 66%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 8.6 against an average line of 3.9; 41.6 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC @ MIA 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	29–27	L	O45.5
Very close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Very close	KC @ CLE 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	21–7	W	U41.5
Close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & total	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Close	KC @ NYG 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	22–9	W	U44.5
Close	HOU @ JAX 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	23–20	L	U44.5
Close	NYJ @ JAX 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	32–25	W	O41.5
Close	NE @ NO 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	25–19	W	U46.5
Close	BUF @ NYJ 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar spread	-5.5	30–10	W	U46.5
Close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN WWLWW	4-2	67%	1-2	3-0
ARI LWLLW	3-3	50%	0-2	3-2

Venue/role: DEN away, as favorite; ARI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2
ARI UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

In 495 games with totals 40.5–46.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%
ARI	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Denver Broncos

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 1	vs KC	L10–31LU
Nov 8	@ CAR	W28–14WO
Nov 22	vs LV	W24–17LO

Arizona Cardinals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 1	@ DAL	W27–17WU
Nov 8	@ SEA	L7–31LU
Nov 15	vs LAR	W18–16WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

DEN 6–1 ARI DEN leads · 7 games since 2001 · DEN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN+1.2 →+0.3▼ 0.9#16

ARI−1.3 →−2.5▼ 1.2#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

DEN

Longer bar = better

ARI

#28

Offense

ARI better ▶

#20

Defense

◀ DEN better

#29

+0.7 #7

Turnovers

◀ DEN better

+0.3 #13

57 plays #30

Pace

ARI faster ▶

67 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #26	29.7 #32	DEN
Yards / play	4.40 #31	6.01 #30	Even
EPA / play	−0.08 #25	+0.08 #28	Even
Success rate	38% #28	45% #24	Even

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	ARI off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #24	20.8 #11	DEN
Yards / play	4.56 #28	5.05 #13	DEN
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	−0.04 #9	DEN
Success rate	46% #11	40% #4	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	3.7 #21	8.7 #7	12.3 #12
ARI allowed	4.5 #15	9.3 #30	13.8 #31	7.5 #28	8.3 #26	15.8 #29

ARI scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.2 #8	4.7 #26	9.8 #19	4.5 #18	6.7 #19	11.2 #20
DEN allowed	2.8 #7	5.3 #8	8.2 #5	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.