Chiefs @ Broncos: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 8 · at Denver Broncos · Division game

Kickoff forecast51°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

5-0 · Power #2

projected

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Denver Broncos

4-2 · Power #16

projected

KC 56%

44% DEN

Spread

KC -1.5

open DEN -1.5

Total

42.5

model 43

Spread edge

KC by 2

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenDEN -1.5

CurrentKC -1.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenDEN -1.5

3 → KC

NowKC -1.5

3 pts toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open43.5

▼ 1

Now42.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -1.5 · now KC -1.5 · moved 3 toward KCmodel KC -3.5

model KC -3.5

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: KC by 5.1 pts (open +1.5, now -1.5). In 2025–2026, with a 4+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 67.6% of the 37 games where the line moved (44 at that gap), but those sides covered 27.3% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (82 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenDEN -1.5

CurrentKC -1.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	KC	DEN	Over	Under	KC	DEN
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-1.5-108	+1.5-112	42.5-110	42.5-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	42.5-113	42.5-108	-125	+102
BetUSBetUS	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	42.5-110	42.5-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	42.5-110	42.5-110	-122	+102
FanDuelFD	-1.5-114	+1.5-106	42.5-115	42.5-105	-126	+108
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-1.5-103	+1.5-107	42.5-107	42.5-107	—	—

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:35 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Total

Over 42.5Under 42.5

Bets73% 27%

Money63% 37%

Money is 10 pts ahead of bets on Under 42.5

Winner

DEN

Bets90% 10%

Money85% 15%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 1.5-point road favorite at DEN, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.9 against an average line of 2.3; 41.9 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SF @ MIA 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	17–29	L	O44.5
Close	LAC @ JAX 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	6–35	L	U42.5
Close	CHI @ GB 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	7–31	L	U46.5
Close	PIT @ IND 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	24–27	L	O40.5
Close	SEA @ ARI 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	23–20	W	U43.5
Close	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Close	MIN @ NO 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	23–13	W	U41.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	HOU @ PIT 2025 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-3	30–6	W	U38.5
Loose	ARI @ SEA 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & situation	-1.5	6–16	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	3-2
DEN WWLWW	4-2	67%	3-0	1-2

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; DEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC UOUOU	2-3	40%	5-0
DEN UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2

In 460 games with totals 39.5–45.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
DEN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kansas City Chiefs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs NYJ	W23–20
Nov 15	@ ATL	W22–17WU
Nov 22	vs ARI	No meeting since 2023

Denver Broncos

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ CAR	W28–14WO
Nov 22	vs LV	W24–17LO
Nov 27	@ PIT	L6–13

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

KC 31–24 DEN KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2026	Denver Broncos 10 @ Kansas City Chiefs 31	KC -2.5	KC W
Dec 25 2025	Denver Broncos 20 @ Kansas City Chiefs 13	DEN -13.5	KC W
Nov 16 2025	Kansas City Chiefs 19 @ Denver Broncos 22	KC -4.5	DEN W
Jan 5 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 0 @ Denver Broncos 38	DEN -11.5	DEN W
Nov 10 2024	Denver Broncos 14 @ Kansas City Chiefs 16	KC -7.5	DEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+0.7 →+3.8▲ 3.1#2

DEN+1.2 →+0.3▼ 0.9#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

DEN

Offense

◀ KC better

#28

Defense

◀ KC better

+1.0 #2

Turnovers

◀ KC better

+0.7 #7

62 plays #19

Pace

◀ KC faster

57 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #5	20.8 #11	KC
Yards / play	6.70 #1	5.05 #13	KC
EPA / play	+0.16 #5	−0.04 #9	Even
Success rate	49% #2	40% #4	Even

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	DEN off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #26	16.6 #2	KC
Yards / play	4.40 #31	4.81 #6	KC
EPA / play	−0.08 #25	−0.10 #3	KC
Success rate	38% #28	38% #3	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	8.0 #1	6.8 #16	14.8 #4	3.4 #23	8.6 #10	12.0 #14
DEN allowed	2.8 #7	5.3 #8	8.2 #5	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

DEN scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	3.7 #21	8.7 #7	12.3 #12
KC allowed	6.2 #29	3.8 #2	10.0 #11	1.8 #1	4.2 #4	6.0 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.