Mon, Sep 14, 2026, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Kansas City Chiefs · Division game
Closing spread
KC -2.5
✓ KC W
Total
42.5
▼ Under · 41 pts
Model before kickoff
DEN 20–21 KC
✓ KC (57%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenKC -2.5
CloseKC -2.5
Total42.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenKC -2.5
no move
CloseKC -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open42.5
no move
Close42.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened KC -2.5 · unchangedmodel DEN -3
model DEN -3
Opened 42.5 · unchangedmodel 41
model 41
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 52% (214 games)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenKC -2.5
CloseKC -2.5
Total42.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
KC as a 2.5-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.
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This game: KC won 31–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 42.5, as in 3 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 62%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 53%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 2.5; 49.9 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-2 | 17–33 | L | O42.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-1.5 | 17–10 | W | U42.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-2.5 | 26–24 | L | O42.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 36–30 | W | O43.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & situation |
-3.5 | 17–31 | L | O40.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-2.5 | 13–20 | L | U44.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 34–27 | W | O41.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-3.5 | 35–38 | L | O45.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-1.5 | 38–6 | W | U44.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-2.5 | 27–20 | W | O45.5 |
CLE
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ATL
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NE
LV
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BALHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Denver Broncos have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 DEN | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| KC | 2-8 20% | 2-7 22% | 1-9 10% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 since 2023
DEN 24–31 KC
KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 25 2025 | Denver Broncos 20 @ Kansas City Chiefs 13 | DEN -13.5 | KC W |
| Nov 16 2025 | Kansas City Chiefs 19 @ Denver Broncos 22 | KC -4.5 | DEN W |
| Jan 5 2024 | Kansas City Chiefs 0 @ Denver Broncos 38 | DEN -11.5 | DEN W |
| Nov 10 2024 | Denver Broncos 14 @ Kansas City Chiefs 16 | KC -7.5 | DEN W |
| Oct 29 2023 | Kansas City Chiefs 9 @ Denver Broncos 24 | KC -7 | DEN W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
KC +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
90° · 11 mph
gusts 31 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
DEN1st game
KC1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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