Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Los Angeles Chargers
Closing spread
LAC -8.5
✓ ARI W
Total
47.5
▼ Under · 40 pts
Model before kickoff
ARI 18–26 LAC
✗ LAC (77%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenLAC -11.5
CloseLAC -8.5
Total45.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLAC -11.5
3 → ARI
CloseLAC -8.5
3 pts toward Arizona Cardinals
Total
Open45.5
▲ 2
Close47.5
Up 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LAC -11.5 · closed LAC -8.5 · moved 3 toward ARImodel LAC -4.5
model LAC -4.5
Opened 45.5 · closed 47.5 · moved 2 upmodel 44.5
model 44.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 44% (70 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenLAC -11.5
CloseLAC -8.5
Total45.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
LAC as an 8.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: ARI won 26–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 71%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 43%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 61%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.2 against an average line of 7.3; 45 points a game (usually 47.2). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |
2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-8.5 | 30–24 | L | O45.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Postseason · close · similar total |
-7.5 | 31–7 | W | U48.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation |
-8.5 | 41–10 | W | O46.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar team ratings |
-5.5 | 21–13 | W | U46.5 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-7.5 | 28–3 | W | U44.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & situation |
-6.5 | 19–44 | L | O47.5 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar team ratings |
-7 | 33–15 | W | O46.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-7.5 | 26–8 | W | U41.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-8.5 | 20–16 | L | U42.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar team ratings & total |
-5.5 | 42–19 | W | O45.5 |
KC
TB
BUF
DEN
BAL
MIN
IND
CIN
DAL
NO
NE
NYG
PHI
CLE
WSH
TENHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Arizona Cardinals ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Arizona Cardinals
3 pts (LAC -11.5 → LAC -8.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Total moved up 2
45.5 → 47.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Small sample warning
Arizona Cardinals have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 ARI | 1-9 10% | 2-8 20% | 6-4 60% |
| LAC | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
ARI 4–5 LAC
LAC leads · 9 games since 2001 · ARI has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 2024 | Los Angeles Chargers 15 @ Arizona Cardinals 17 | LAC -1.5 | ARI W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
LAC +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
80° · 7 mph
gusts 8 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ARI1st game
LAC1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
SEA
SF vs 
LAR
MIA @ 
LV
DET
NYJ @ 
ATL @ 
PIT
CHI @ 
CAR