Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Las Vegas Raiders
Closing spread
LV -3
✓ LV W
Total
40.5
▼ Under · 40 pts
Model before kickoff
MIA 21–23 LV
✓ LV (59%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenLV -3
CloseLV -3
Total41.5 → 40.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLV -3
no move
CloseLV -3
No change since the open
Total
Open41.5
▼ 1
Close40.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LV -3 · unchangedmodel MIA -1.5
model MIA -1.5
Opened 41.5 · closed 40.5 · moved 1 downmodel 43.5
model 43.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (185 games)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenLV -3
CloseLV -3
Total41.5 → 40.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
LV as a 3-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: LV won 27–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 40.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 62%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 51%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.4 against an average line of 2.6; 42.4 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & situation |
-3.5 | 17–31 | L | O40.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-2.5 | 13–20 | L | U44.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & total |
-2.5 | 26–24 | L | O42.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3 | 22–10 | W | U40.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-2.5 | 14–30 | L | O36.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & spread |
-2.5 | 34–27 | W | O41.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-1.5 | 17–10 | W | U42.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-2.5 | 21–16 | W | U43.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread |
-2.5 | 27–21 | W | O43.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 14–30 | L | O41.5 |
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DALHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Miami Dolphins ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Miami Dolphins on a cross-country trip
Miami Dolphins cross 3 time zones (2,171 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)
Small sample warning
Miami Dolphins have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 1 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 37.5–43.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIA | 6-4 60% | 5-4 56% | 4-6 40% |
| LV | 1-9 10% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 2 since 2023
MIA 13–5 LV
MIA leads · 18 games since 1999 · LV has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17 2024 | Las Vegas Raiders 19 @ Miami Dolphins 34 | MIA -8.5 | MIA W |
| Nov 19 2023 | Las Vegas Raiders 13 @ Miami Dolphins 20 | MIA -13.5 | LV W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
LV +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
MIA1st game
LV1st game
Even
Travel
MIA 2,171 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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TB @ 
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DET
BAL @