Patriots @ Dolphins: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 8 · at Miami Dolphins · Division game

Kickoff forecast82°F16 mphDryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New England Patriots

4-3 · Power #7

projected

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Miami Dolphins

0-5 · Power #31

projected

NE 78%

22% MIA

Spread

NE -8.5

open NE -7

Total

44.5

model 39

Spread edge

MIA by 0.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenNE -7

CurrentNE -8.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenNE -7

1.5 → NE

NowNE -8.5

1.5 pts toward New England Patriots

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Now44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened NE -7 · now NE -8.5 · moved 1.5 toward NEmodel NE -8

model NE -8

Openline modelNow

↗ Total toward model

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 41% (68 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7The team the line moved toward covered 62% (21 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenNE -7

CurrentNE -8.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	NE	MIA	Over	Under	NE	MIA
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-8-110	+8-110	44-110	44-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-8-113	+8-108	44-110	44-110	-480	+350
BetUSBetUS	-8-110	+8-110	44-110	44-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	-8.5-110	+8.5-110	44.5-110	44.5-110	-470	+360
FanDuelFD	-8.5-104	+8.5-118	43.5-120	43.5-102	-460	+360
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-8-105	+8-105	44-107	44-107	—	—

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:35 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Winner

MIA

Bets99% 1%

Money87% 13%

Money is 12 pts ahead of bets on MIA

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as an 8.5-point road favorite at MIA, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 9 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 41%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 60%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 7.6; 47.7 points a game (usually 47). Of the 9 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ MIA 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	31–24	L	O45.5
Very close	LAC @ TEN 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	27–20	L	O44.5
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-7.5	17–34	L	O41.5
Very close	DEN @ LV 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-8.5	24–17	L	O40.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar total & season form	-7	29–18	W	O43.5
Close	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Close	ATL @ CAR 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	38–20	W	O45.5
Close	NE @ TEN 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	31–13	W	O41.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	GB @ NYG 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar total	-7.5	27–20	L	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE LWWLL	3-3-1	50%	1-2-1	2-1
MIA LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-1	2-3

Venue/role: NE away, as favorite; MIA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
MIA UOUUO	2-3	40%	0-5

In 510 games with totals 41.5–47.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%
MIA	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New England Patriots

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs GB	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	@ DET	No meeting since 2023
Nov 29	@ LAC	W16–3WU

Miami Dolphins

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs DET	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	@ IND	L8–33LU
Nov 22	@ BUF	W30–13WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

NE 29–25 MIA NE leads · 54 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 4 2025	Miami Dolphins 10 @ New England Patriots 38	NE -14.5	NE W
Sep 14 2025	New England Patriots 33 @ Miami Dolphins 27	MIA -2.5	NE W
Nov 24 2024	New England Patriots 15 @ Miami Dolphins 34	MIA -7.5	MIA W
Oct 6 2024	Miami Dolphins 15 @ New England Patriots 10	MIA -2.5	MIA W
Oct 29 2023	New England Patriots 17 @ Miami Dolphins 31	MIA -7.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE+1.8 →+2.7▲ 0.9#7

MIA−1.7 →−4.4▼ 2.7#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

MIA

#11

Offense

◀ NE better

#27

#16

Defense

◀ NE better

#26

−1.0 #30

Turnovers

Even

−0.8 #28

62 plays #16

Pace

◀ NE faster

55 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NE offense

	NE off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #17	26.4 #24	NE
Yards / play	6.00 #5	5.50 #21	NE
EPA / play	+0.06 #10	+0.11 #29	NE
Success rate	45% #12	49% #30	NE

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	MIA off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #32	20.4 #9	NE
Yards / play	5.11 #19	5.36 #16	Even
EPA / play	−0.12 #28	+0.02 #20	NE
Success rate	38% #29	44% #20	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #13	12.3 #15	4.9 #16	5.7 #23	10.6 #23
MIA allowed	6.2 #29	8.8 #27	15.0 #32	8.2 #30	3.2 #2	11.4 #13

MIA scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.8 #28	2.4 #30	5.2 #31	4.6 #17	4.2 #29	8.8 #29
NE allowed	2.9 #9	6.3 #15	9.1 #7	5.3 #21	6.0 #9	11.3 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.