Cardinals @ Cowboys: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 8 · at Dallas Cowboys

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

2-4 · Power #28

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Dallas Cowboys

2-4 · Power #20

projected

ARI 28%

72% DAL

Spread

DAL -6.5

open DAL -10.5

Total

51.5

model 50.5

Spread edge

ARI by 2

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenDAL -10.5

CurrentDAL -6.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenDAL -10.5

4 → ARI

NowDAL -6.5

4 pts toward Arizona Cardinals

Total

Open49.5

▲ 2

Now51.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened DAL -10.5 · now DAL -6.5 · moved 4 toward ARImodel DAL -4.5

model DAL -4.5

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: ARI by 6.1 pts (open +10.5, now +6.5). In 2025–2026, with a 4+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 67.6% of the 37 games where the line moved (44 at that gap), but those sides covered 27.3% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 49% (150 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 31% (55 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenDAL -10.5

CurrentDAL -6.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	ARI	DAL	Over	Under	ARI	DAL
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+6-110	-6-110	52.5-110	52.5-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+6.5-114	-6.5-108	52-112	52-109	+240	-305
BetUSBetUS	+6-110	-6-110	52.5-110	52.5-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	+6.5-110	-6.5-110	51.5-110	51.5-110	+240	-298
FanDuelFD	+6.5-110	-6.5-110	51.5-115	51.5-105	+250	-310
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+6-105	-6-105	52.5-107	52.5-107	—	—

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:35 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Winner

ARI

DAL

Bets12% 88%

Money31% 69%

Money is 19 pts ahead of bets on ARI

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 6.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.5 against an average line of 5.8; 52.5 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DAL vs MIN 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-5.5	26–34	L	O47.5
Loose	ARI vs NE 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & situation	-5.5	30–17	W	O46.5
Loose	DET vs DEN 2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	42–17	W	O49
Loose	HOU vs ARI 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	21–16	L	U48
Loose	LAC vs LV 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	24–17	W	U49
Loose	LAR vs WSH 2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form	-6.5	28–20	W	U48.5
Loose	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Loose	IND vs JAX 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & rest	-3.5	26–23	L	O45.5
Loose	TB vs LV 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	28–13	W	U47.5
Loose	ATL vs CAR 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	38–44	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI LWLLW	3-3	50%	3-1	3-2
DAL WPWLL	2-3-1	40%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; DAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
DAL OOOUU	4-2	67%	2-4

In 159 games with totals 48.5–54.5, 48% went over; 0% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 18% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
DAL	3-7 30%	2-7-1 22%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Arizona Cardinals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ SEA	L7–31LU
Nov 15	vs LAR	W18–16WU
Nov 22	@ KC	No meeting since 2023

Dallas Cowboys

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ IND	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	vs SF	L24–30LO
Nov 22	vs TEN	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ARI 12–7 DAL ARI leads · 19 games since 1999 · ARI has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 3 2025	Arizona Cardinals 27 @ Dallas Cowboys 17	DAL -3.5	ARI W
Sep 24 2023	Dallas Cowboys 16 @ Arizona Cardinals 28	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI−1.3 →−2.5▼ 1.2#28

DAL−0.6 →−1.3▼ 0.7#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ARI

Longer bar = better

DAL

#20

Offense

DAL better ▶

#11

#29

Defense

Even

#30

+0.3 #13

Turnovers

◀ ARI better

−0.7 #27

67 plays #4

Pace

◀ ARI faster

63 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: ARI offense

	ARI off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #24	26.5 #25	Even
Yards / play	4.56 #28	6.04 #31	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	+0.16 #32	ARI
Success rate	46% #11	49% #32	ARI

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #12	29.7 #32	DAL
Yards / play	5.49 #13	6.01 #30	DAL
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	+0.08 #28	DAL
Success rate	47% #9	45% #24	DAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.2 #8	4.7 #26	9.8 #19	4.5 #18	6.7 #19	11.2 #20
DAL allowed	5.2 #22	8.3 #24	13.5 #27	7.3 #27	5.7 #7	13.0 #21

DAL scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	5.0 #11	3.8 #27	8.8 #24	7.7 #4	8.7 #7	16.3 #3
ARI allowed	4.5 #15	9.3 #30	13.8 #31	7.5 #28	8.3 #26	15.8 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.