Bears @ Seahawks: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Mon, Nov 2, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 8 · at Seattle Seahawks

Kickoff forecast50°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

5-2 · Power #4

projected

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Seattle Seahawks

3-3 · Power #1

projected

CHI 40%

60% SEA

Spread

SEA -3

Total

46.5

model 46

Spread edge

CHI by 3

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentSEA -3

Total46.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowSEA -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now46.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (204 games)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentSEA -3

Total46.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	CHI	SEA	Over	Under	CHI	SEA
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+3-120	-3+100	46.5-110	46.5-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+3-118	-3-104	46.5-112	46.5-109	+133	-162
BetUSBetUS	+3-120	-3+100	46.5-110	46.5-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	+3-110	-3-110	46.5-115	46.5-105	+136	-162
FanDuelFD	+3-114	-3-106	46.5-114	46.5-106	+134	-158
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+3-116	-3+105	46.5-107	46.5-107	—	—

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:35 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Winner

CHI

SEA

Bets16% 84%

Money29% 71%

Money is 13 pts ahead of bets on CHI

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 3-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 7 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 62%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 5.6 against an average line of 3.2; 51 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Very close	LAC vs WSH 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	10–27	L	U48.5
Very close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Very close	DEN vs JAX 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	20–34	L	O46.5
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	JAX vs NE 2026 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	35–6	W	U46.5
Very close	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Very close	BAL vs NE 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	24–28	L	O47.5
Very close	SF vs JAX 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	21–26	L	O46.5
Very close	SEA vs TB 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	35–38	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WWLWW	5-2	71%	2-1	1-0
SEA WLPLL	1-3-2	25%	0-1-2	1-3-2

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; SEA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI UUUOO	3-4	43%	5-2
SEA UOOOU	3-3	50%	3-3

In 454 games with totals 43.5–49.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
SEA	7-3 70%	5-3-2 63%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Chicago Bears

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs TB	L17–27
Nov 22	vs NO	W26–14WU
Nov 26	@ DET	L16–19LU

Seattle Seahawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs ARI	W31–7WU
Nov 15	@ LV	No meeting since 2023
Nov 29	@ SF	L29–32LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CHI 6–8 SEA SEA leads · 14 games since 1999 · SEA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 26 2024	Seattle Seahawks 6 @ Chicago Bears 3	SEA -4.5	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI+0.4 →+3.2▲ 2.8#4

SEA+3.2 →+4.3▲ 1.1#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CHI

Longer bar = better

SEA

#11

Offense

◀ CHI better

#19

#17

Defense

SEA better ▶

−0.1 #18

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #19

72 plays #1

Pace

◀ CHI faster

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: SEA defense

	CHI off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #8	20.3 #6	Even
Yards / play	5.42 #15	3.96 #1	SEA
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	−0.13 #2	SEA
Success rate	47% #10	37% #2	SEA

When SEA has the ball

Even matchup

	SEA off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #13	20.4 #8	CHI
Yards / play	5.26 #17	6.25 #32	SEA
EPA / play	−0.08 #24	0.00 #19	CHI
Success rate	41% #22	42% #8	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	7.9 #3	7.1 #15	15.0 #3	6.4 #10	4.3 #28	10.7 #22
SEA allowed	2.8 #7	9.2 #28	12.0 #20	2.8 #3	5.0 #6	7.8 #3

SEA scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	4.0 #18	4.8 #25	8.8 #24	7.2 #6	8.7 #7	15.8 #4
CHI allowed	2.4 #5	8.3 #23	10.7 #15	3.7 #8	6.0 #9	9.7 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.