Falcons @ Buccaneers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 8 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Division game

Kickoff forecast84°F12 mphDryWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

2-4 · Power #18

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1-5 · Power #19

projected

ATL 45%

55% TB

Spread

TB -1.5

open TB -4.5

Total

44.5

model 42.5

Spread edge

ATL by 1.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenTB -4.5

CurrentTB -1.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenTB -4.5

3 → ATL

NowTB -1.5

3 pts toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Now44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened TB -4.5 · now TB -1.5 · moved 3 toward ATLmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: ATL by 4.7 pts (open +4.5, now +1.5). In 2025–2026, with a 4+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 67.6% of the 37 games where the line moved (44 at that gap), but those sides covered 27.3% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 43% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenTB -4.5

CurrentTB -1.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	ATL	TB	Over	Under	ATL	TB
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	PK-110	PK-110	45.5-115	45.5-105	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+1-115	-1-106	44.5-112	44.5-109	-108	-113
BetUSBetUS	PK-110	PK-110	45.5-115	45.5-105	—	—
DraftKingsDK	+1.5-115	-1.5-105	44.5-110	44.5-110	-102	-118
FanDuelFD	+1.5-115	-1.5-105	45.5-105	45.5-115	+100	-118
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	PK-105	PK-105	45.5-113	45.5-102	—	—

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:35 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Total

Over 44.5Under 44.5

Bets71% 29%

Money78% 22%

Winner

ATL

Bets46% 54%

Money76% 24%

Money is 30 pts ahead of bets on ATL

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 1.5-point home favorite against ATL, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 10 against an average line of 3.3; 47.6 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSH vs LV 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Close	NE vs CAR 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-3	42–13	W	O42.5
Close	CHI vs NO 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	26–14	W	U43.5
Close	PIT vs MIA 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & rest	-3	28–15	W	U43.5
Close	TB vs CAR 2025 · Week 18 · close · similar season form & rest	-3	16–14	L	U42.5
Close	ARI vs WSH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-3.5	14–42	L	O48.5
Loose	MIN vs CIN 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	48–10	W	O42.5
Loose	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Loose	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Loose	HOU vs MIA 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	20–12	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff

Model Favorite

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55%

Projected ATL 21 – TB 22 · Model Favorite won 66.2% in backtest

Model line

Pick’em

Market TB -1.5

Against the spread

No lean

Below the 2.5-point lean threshold.

Total

No lean

Model 42.5 · Below the 5-point lean threshold.

How the model gets there (points from TB’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)

SpreadTB rating edge−0.2+Home field+1.8+QB EPA gap−1.8=Model marginATL by 0.2

TotalScoring ratings45.2+Wind 12 mph−2.8=Model total42.4

Signals

The data signal, and 6 trends and market moves behind it

Moderate Atlanta Falcons ATS trend

Moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

Moderate Under trend

Moderate-or-stronger total leans went 21-24 (47%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ATS struggles (1-5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered only 17% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 62-65 (49%)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers home ATS weakness (0-4)

Weak against the spread at home this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 71-65 (52%)

Market moved toward Atlanta Falcons

3 pts (TB -4.5 → TB -1.5), through the key number 3. · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)

Total moved down 2

46.5 → 44.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)

Wind 12 mph

Outdoor NFL games with 12 mph wind at kickoff have stayed under the total more often than the market allows for. · Backtest 2023–26: 57-46 (55%)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield questionable

The model takes points off a team whose usual starter is out or doubtful; the market line may already reflect it.

beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LWWLL	2-4	33%	2-1	2-3
TB LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-4	0-2

Venue/role: ATL away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL UOOOO	4-2	67%	2-4
TB OUUUO	3-3	50%	1-5

In 510 games with totals 41.5–47.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
TB	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Atlanta Falcons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs CIN	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	vs KC	L17–22LU
Nov 29	@ MIN	W22–6WU

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ CHI	W27–17
Nov 22	@ DET	L9–24LU
Nov 30	vs CAR	W16–14LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

ATL 25–25 TB Series tied · 50 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 11 2025	Atlanta Falcons 29 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28	TB -6	ATL W
Sep 7 2025	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 @ Atlanta Falcons 20	ATL -1.5	TB W
Oct 27 2024	Atlanta Falcons 31 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26	ATL -0.5	ATL W
Oct 3 2024	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 @ Atlanta Falcons 36	ATL -2.5	ATL W
Dec 10 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29 @ Atlanta Falcons 25	ATL -1.5	TB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.6 →−1.0▼ 0.4#18

TB−0.2 →−1.2▼ 1.0#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ATL

Longer bar = better

#15

Offense

◀ ATL better

#27

#15

Defense

TB better ▶

−1.2 #31

Turnovers

TB better ▶

−0.5 #22

60 plays #24

Pace

TB faster ▶

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: TB defense

	ATL off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #16	23.0 #17	Even
Yards / play	5.74 #10	5.01 #9	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	−0.09 #4	TB
Success rate	44% #13	41% #5	TB

When TB has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	TB off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #25	25.5 #23	Even
Yards / play	4.66 #25	5.03 #11	ATL
EPA / play	−0.13 #29	−0.02 #16	ATL
Success rate	39% #27	42% #11	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.8 #5	6.2 #17	12.0 #16	3.3 #25	8.3 #11	11.7 #17
TB allowed	5.7 #26	6.0 #12	11.7 #18	3.3 #5	6.8 #16	10.2 #8

TB scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.2 #25	6.2 #17	9.3 #23	6.7 #8	3.8 #31	10.5 #24
ATL allowed	6.2 #27	6.7 #17	12.8 #23	5.0 #19	6.5 #13	11.5 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.