Ravens @ Bills: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 8 · at Buffalo Bills

Kickoff forecast58°F15 mphDryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

4-2 · Power #10

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Buffalo Bills

5-1 · Power #9

projected

BAL 38%

62% BUF

Spread

BUF -3

open BUF -2.5

Total

52.5

model 48.5

Spread edge

BUF by 2.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenBUF -2.5

CurrentBUF -3

Total51.5 → 52.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenBUF -2.5

0.5 → BUF

NowBUF -3

0.5 pts toward Buffalo Bills

Total

Open51.5

▲ 1

Now52.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -2.5 · now BUF -3 · moved 0.5 toward BUFmodel BUF -5.5

model BUF -5.5

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: BUF by 2.9 pts (open -2.5, now -3). In 2025–2026, with a 2+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 60.5% of the 124 games where the line moved (160 at that gap), but those sides covered 46.3% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (204 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (24 games since 2025)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenBUF -2.5

CurrentBUF -3

Total51.5 → 52.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	BAL	BUF	Over	Under	BAL	BUF
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+3-110	-3-110	52.5-115	52.5-105	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+3-105	-3-117	53.5-110	53.5-110	+150	-182
BetUSBetUS	+3-110	-3-110	52.5-115	52.5-105	—	—
DraftKingsDK	+3-105	-3-115	52.5-110	52.5-110	+145	-175
FanDuelFD	+3-105	-3-115	53.5-110	53.5-110	+144	-174
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+3-105	-3-105	52.5-113	52.5-102	—	—

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:35 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Total

Over 52.5Under 52.5

Bets50% 50%

Money60% 40%

Money is 10 pts ahead of bets on Over 52.5

Winner

BAL

BUF

Bets9% 91%

Money1% 99%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 3-point home favorite against BAL, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.1 against an average line of 3.4; 55.7 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs NE 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	23–28	L	O48.5
Close	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Close	LAR vs BUF 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	34–37	L	O55.5
Close	SF vs CHI 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar total & season form	-4.5	42–38	L	O51.5
Close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	DET vs DAL 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	44–30	W	O55.5
Close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Close	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL LPLWL	2-3-1	40%	2-1	1-0
BUF WWLWL	4-2	67%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: BAL away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL UOOOU	4-2	67%	4-2
BUF OUOOO	5-1	83%	5-1

In 108 games with totals 49.5–55.5, 52% went over; 0% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	7-3 70%
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Baltimore Ravens

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	vs JAX	W23–7WU
Nov 16	vs LAC	W30–23WO
Nov 22	@ CAR	No meeting since 2023

Buffalo Bills

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	@ MIN	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	@ NYJ	W35–8WO
Nov 22	vs MIA	L13–30LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

BAL 7–7 BUF Series tied · 14 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2025	Baltimore Ravens 40 @ Buffalo Bills 41	BAL -1.5	BUF W
Jan 19 2024	Baltimore Ravens 25 @ Buffalo Bills 27	BAL -1.5	BUF W
Sep 29 2024	Buffalo Bills 10 @ Baltimore Ravens 35	BAL -2.5	BAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+0.7 →+1.9▲ 1.2#10

BUF+2.1 →+2.7▲ 0.6#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

BAL

Longer bar = better

BUF

Offense

BUF better ▶

#13

Defense

◀ BAL better

#28

+0.3 #14

Turnovers

◀ BAL better

−0.5 #26

61 plays #21

Pace

◀ BAL faster

60 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #7	28.5 #28	BAL
Yards / play	6.01 #4	5.64 #25	BAL
EPA / play	+0.11 #7	+0.13 #30	BAL
Success rate	48% #5	47% #27	BAL

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #1	22.0 #15	BUF
Yards / play	6.48 #2	5.04 #12	BUF
EPA / play	+0.20 #2	−0.03 #14	BUF
Success rate	49% #4	42% #9	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	8.0 #1	9.5 #6	17.5 #1	2.7 #27	4.7 #26	7.3 #31
BUF allowed	5.2 #22	7.3 #21	12.5 #22	4.0 #13	12.0 #32	16.0 #30

BUF scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.3 #16	13.0 #1	17.3 #2	4.3 #19	10.7 #1	15.0 #6
BAL allowed	5.0 #17	3.8 #3	8.8 #6	3.8 #9	9.3 #29	13.2 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.