Chargers @ Ravens: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Mon, Nov 16, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Baltimore Ravens

Los Angeles Chargers

0-6 · Power #25

projected

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens

4-2 · Power #10

projected

LAC 36%

64% BAL

Spread

BAL -3.5

Total

47.5

model 44.5

Spread edge

BAL by 4

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBAL -3.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowBAL -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBAL -3.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 3.5-point home favorite against LAC, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.5 against an average line of 3.9; 44.5 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5
Close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Close	HOU vs DEN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-3	22–17	W	U47
Close	DET vs MIN 2023 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	30–20	W	O47.5
Close	HOU vs ARI 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-5.5	21–16	L	U48
Close	CHI vs NYG 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	24–20	L	U44.5
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	LAC vs PIT 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	25–10	W	U45.5
Close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	7–24	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC LLPLL	0-5-1	0%	0-2-1	0-3-1
BAL LPLWL	2-3-1	40%	0-2	1-3-1

Venue/role: LAC away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UUOUU	1-5	17%	0-6
BAL UOOOU	4-2	67%	4-2

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	1-9 10%	1-8-1 11%	2-8 20%
BAL	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Los Angeles Chargers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs NYJ	W27–6WU
Nov 29	vs NE	L3–16LU
Dec 6	@ TB	L17–40LO

Baltimore Ravens

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ CAR	No meeting since 2023
Nov 29	@ HOU	L10–44LO
Dec 13	vs TB	W41–31WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LAC 4–10 BAL BAL leads · 14 games since 2000 · BAL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2024	Baltimore Ravens 30 @ Los Angeles Chargers 23	BAL -2.5	BAL W
Nov 26 2023	Baltimore Ravens 20 @ Los Angeles Chargers 10	BAL -3	BAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC+0.6 →−2.3▼ 2.9#25

BAL+0.7 →+1.9▲ 1.2#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

LAC

Longer bar = better

BAL

#30

Offense

BAL better ▶

#17

Defense

BAL better ▶

#13

−0.8 #29

Turnovers

BAL better ▶

+0.3 #14

62 plays #18

Pace

Even

61 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	LAC off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #30	22.0 #15	BAL
Yards / play	4.64 #26	5.04 #12	BAL
EPA / play	−0.22 #32	−0.03 #14	BAL
Success rate	36% #31	42% #9	BAL

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #7	25.2 #22	BAL
Yards / play	6.01 #4	5.40 #19	BAL
EPA / play	+0.11 #7	−0.04 #11	Even
Success rate	48% #5	44% #17	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	3.8 #20	2.2 #31	6.0 #30	6.8 #7	2.2 #32	9.0 #28
BAL allowed	5.0 #17	3.8 #3	8.8 #6	3.8 #9	9.3 #29	13.2 #22

BAL scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	8.0 #1	9.5 #6	17.5 #1	2.7 #27	4.7 #26	7.3 #31
LAC allowed	5.0 #17	8.7 #26	13.7 #29	3.3 #5	8.2 #22	11.5 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.