Texans @ Chargers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Los Angeles Chargers

Houston Texans

2-4 · Power #11

projected

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Los Angeles Chargers

0-6 · Power #25

projected

HOU 44%

56% LAC

Spread

LAC -2.5

Total

43.5

model 41.5

Spread edge

HOU by 7.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAC -2.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowLAC -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now43.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAC -2.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 2.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.9 against an average line of 2.6; 43.1 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DEN vs GB 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Close	DEN vs LAR 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar total & season form	-1.5	30–26	W	O44.5
Close	HOU vs TB 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	19–20	L	U42.5
Close	MIN vs CIN 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar total & season form	-3.5	48–10	W	O42.5
Close	DEN vs MIN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	21–20	L	U43
Close	JAX vs IND 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & total	-3.5	37–34	L	O44.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	GB vs LAR 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	20–3	W	U39.5
Close	MIN vs WSH 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar total & spread	-1.5	31–0	W	U43.5
Close	ATL vs IND 2023 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	29–10	W	U44

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-1
LAC LLPLL	0-5-1	0%	0-3	0-2

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UUOUO	3-3	50%	2-4
LAC UUOUU	1-5	17%	0-6

In 495 games with totals 40.5–46.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
LAC	1-9 10%	1-8-1 11%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Houston Texans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ CLE	W45–14WO
Nov 19	vs IND	L17–19LU
Nov 29	vs BAL	W44–10WO

Los Angeles Chargers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	@ BAL	L23–30LO
Nov 22	vs NYJ	W27–6WU
Nov 29	vs NE	L3–16LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

HOU 5–6 LAC LAC leads · 11 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 27 2025	Houston Texans 20 @ Los Angeles Chargers 16	LAC -1.5	HOU W
Jan 11 2024	Los Angeles Chargers 12 @ Houston Texans 32	LAC -2.5	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+2.4 →+1.6▼ 0.8#11

LAC+0.6 →−2.3▼ 2.9#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

HOU

Longer bar = better

LAC

#14

Offense

◀ HOU better

#30

#15

Defense

Even

#17

+0.5 #11

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−0.8 #29

63 plays #14

Pace

◀ HOU faster

62 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #15	25.2 #22	HOU
Yards / play	5.66 #11	5.40 #19	HOU
EPA / play	+0.04 #13	−0.04 #11	Even
Success rate	43% #16	44% #17	Even

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	LAC off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #30	23.8 #20	HOU
Yards / play	4.64 #26	5.18 #14	HOU
EPA / play	−0.22 #32	0.00 #18	HOU
Success rate	36% #31	41% #6	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.5 #14	8.2 #9	12.7 #11	5.2 #13	6.2 #21	11.3 #18
LAC allowed	5.0 #17	8.7 #26	13.7 #29	3.3 #5	8.2 #22	11.5 #14

LAC scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	3.8 #20	2.2 #31	6.0 #30	6.8 #7	2.2 #32	9.0 #28
HOU allowed	2.0 #3	9.2 #28	11.2 #16	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.