Jets @ Chiefs: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Kansas City Chiefs

New York Jets

2-4 · Power #27

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Kansas City Chiefs

5-0 · Power #2

projected

NYJ 19%

81% KC

Spread

KC -9.5

Total

41.5

model 43

Spread edge

KC by 0.5

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentKC -9.5

Total41.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowKC -9.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now41.5

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 45% (49 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentKC -9.5

Total41.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 9.5-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.9 against an average line of 9.6; 45.1 points a game (usually 47.2). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Very close	BUF vs TB 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-10	24–18	L	U43
Very close	BUF vs PIT 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & season form	-10	31–17	W	O39.5
Very close	GB vs CHI 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & season form	-10.5	22–24	L	O41.5
Very close	BUF vs NYJ 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-10.5	40–14	W	O44.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	28–14	W	U44.5
Close	LAR vs SF 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	23–26	L	O43.5
Close	BUF vs NYJ 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	32–6	W	U39
Close	LAC vs TEN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-8.5	27–17	W	O40.5
Close	DET vs CLE 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	34–10	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ WPLWW	4-1-1	80%	2-1-1	3-1-1
KC WLWLW	3-2	60%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ UOUUO	2-4	33%	2-4
KC UOUOU	2-3	40%	5-0

In 428 games with totals 38.5–44.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%
KC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New York Jets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs BUF	L8–35LO
Nov 22	@ LAC	L6–27LU
Nov 29	@ MIA	L10–34LO

Kansas City Chiefs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ ATL	W22–17WU
Nov 22	vs ARI	No meeting since 2023
Nov 26	@ BUF	L21–28LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NYJ 5–6 KC KC leads · 11 games since 2001 · KC has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 1 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 23 @ New York Jets 20	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−3.3 →−2.4▲ 0.9#27

KC+0.7 →+3.8▲ 3.1#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

NYJ

Longer bar = better

#21

Offense

KC better ▶

#11

Defense

KC better ▶

+0.7 #8

Turnovers

KC better ▶

+1.0 #2

59 plays #27

Pace

KC faster ▶

62 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	NYJ off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #27	16.6 #2	KC
Yards / play	4.93 #22	4.81 #6	KC
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	−0.10 #3	KC
Success rate	44% #15	38% #3	KC

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #5	20.3 #7	Even
Yards / play	6.70 #1	4.80 #5	Even
EPA / play	+0.16 #5	−0.05 #8	Even
Success rate	49% #2	44% #23	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	5.5 #12	7.0 #18	12.5 #10
KC allowed	6.2 #29	3.8 #2	10.0 #11	1.8 #1	4.2 #4	6.0 #2

KC scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	8.0 #1	6.8 #16	14.8 #4	3.4 #23	8.6 #10	12.0 #14
NYJ allowed	3.3 #10	6.0 #12	9.3 #9	2.3 #2	8.2 #22	10.5 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.