Raiders @ Jets: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 8 · at New York Jets

Kickoff forecast60°F6 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

3-3 · Power #23

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

New York Jets

2-4 · Power #27

projected

LV 55%

45% NYJ

Spread

LV -1.5

open NYJ -1.5

Total

42.5

model 44

Spread edge

NYJ by 0.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenNYJ -1.5

CurrentLV -1.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenNYJ -1.5

3 → LV

NowLV -1.5

3 pts toward Las Vegas Raiders

Total

Open41.5

▲ 1

Now42.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened NYJ -1.5 · now LV -1.5 · moved 3 toward LVmodel LV -1

model LV -1

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Already at the modelModel vs the opening line: LV by 2.5 pts (open +1.5, now -1.5). In 2025–2026, with a 2+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 60.5% of the 124 games where the line moved (160 at that gap), but those sides covered 46.3% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (82 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenNYJ -1.5

CurrentLV -1.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	LV	NYJ	Over	Under	LV	NYJ
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	PK-110	PK-110	43-110	43-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+1-110	-1-110	43.5-113	43.5-108	-104	-118
BetUSBetUS	PK-110	PK-110	43-110	43-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	-1.5+105	+1.5-125	42.5-110	42.5-110	-108	-112
FanDuelFD	+1.5-115	-1.5-105	43.5-110	43.5-110	-102	-116
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	PK-105	PK-105	43-107	43-107	—	—

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:35 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Total

Over 42.5Under 42.5

Bets76% 24%

Money84% 16%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LV as a 1.5-point road favorite at NYJ, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.8 against an average line of 1.9; 41.2 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NYJ @ ARI 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread	-1.5	6–31	L	U46.5
Close	NO @ NYG 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	34–27	W	O46.5
Close	ATL @ SF 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	10–20	L	U46.5
Close	TB @ CAR 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3	20–23	L	U44.5
Close	DEN @ NO 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	33–10	W	O37.5
Close	LAR @ SEA 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	26–20	W	U48.5
Close	ARI @ SEA 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	6–16	L	U46.5
Close	NYJ @ PIT 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	15–37	L	O40.5
Close	SEA @ JAX 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	20–12	W	U47.5
Close	SF @ MIA 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	17–29	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff

Model Favorite

Las Vegas Raiders 55%

Projected LV 23 – NYJ 21 · Model Favorite won 66.2% in backtest

Model line

LV -1

Market LV -1.5

Against the spread

No lean

Below the 2.5-point lean threshold.

Total

No lean

Model 44 · Below the 5-point lean threshold.

How the model gets there (points from NYJ’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)

SpreadNYJ rating edge−0.2+Home field+1.8+QB EPA gap−1.1+Travel−1.5=Model marginLV by 1.0

TotalScoring ratings44.4+Wind 6 mph−0.4=Model total44.0

Signals

The data signal, and 5 trends and market moves behind it

Slight Las Vegas Raiders ATS trend

Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Las Vegas Raiders ATS trend (5-1)

Las Vegas Raiders have covered 83% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 83-84 (50%)

New York Jets ATS trend (4-1-1)

New York Jets have covered 80% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 83-84 (50%)

New York Jets 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog

Covering consistently in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 81-81 (50%)

Market moved toward Las Vegas Raiders

3 pts (NYJ -1.5 → LV -1.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)

Las Vegas Raiders on a cross-country trip

Las Vegas Raiders cross 3 time zones (2,228 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)

beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WWWLW	5-1	83%	2-1	1-0
NYJ WPLWW	4-1-1	80%	2-0	3-1-1

Venue/role: LV away, as favorite; NYJ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV UOOOO	4-2	67%	3-3
NYJ UOUUO	2-4	33%	2-4

In 460 games with totals 39.5–45.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
NYJ	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Las Vegas Raiders

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ SF	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	vs SEA	No meeting since 2023
Nov 22	@ DEN	L17–24WO

New York Jets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ KC	L20–23
Nov 15	vs BUF	L8–35LO
Nov 22	@ LAC	L6–27LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LV 11–8 NYJ LV leads · 19 games since 1999 · LV has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 12 2023	New York Jets 12 @ Las Vegas Raiders 16	Pick’em	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−3.0 →−2.1▲ 0.9#23

NYJ−3.3 →−2.4▲ 0.9#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#13

Offense

◀ LV better

#21

#26

Defense

NYJ better ▶

#11

+0.3 #15

Turnovers

NYJ better ▶

+0.7 #8

64 plays #9

Pace

◀ LV faster

59 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #6	20.3 #7	Even
Yards / play	5.33 #16	4.80 #5	NYJ
EPA / play	+0.02 #14	−0.05 #8	NYJ
Success rate	43% #17	44% #23	LV

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: NYJ offense

	NYJ off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #27	27.0 #26	Even
Yards / play	4.93 #22	5.99 #29	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	+0.03 #22	Even
Success rate	44% #15	45% #26	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	5.2 #8	7.5 #11	12.7 #11	4.3 #19	10.0 #2	14.3 #8
NYJ allowed	3.3 #10	6.0 #12	9.3 #9	2.3 #2	8.2 #22	10.5 #9

NYJ scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	5.5 #12	7.0 #18	12.5 #10
LV allowed	5.0 #17	6.7 #17	11.7 #18	8.7 #31	6.7 #15	15.3 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.