Rams @ Raiders: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Las Vegas Raiders

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

2-4 · Power #5

projected

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Las Vegas Raiders

3-3 · Power #23

projected

LAR 62%

38% LV

Spread

LAR -3

earliest LAR -7.5

Total

48.5

model 48

Spread edge

LAR by 2

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenLAR -7.5

CurrentLAR -3

Total46.5 → 48.5

Last update6:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenLAR -7.5

4.5 → LV

NowLAR -3

4.5 pts toward Las Vegas Raiders

Total

Open46.5

▲ 2

Now48.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened LAR -7.5 · now LAR -3.5 · moved 4 toward LVmodel LAR -5

model LAR -5

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Already at the modelModel vs the opening line: LV by 2.3 pts (open +7.5, now +3). In 2025–2026, with a 2+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 60.5% of the 124 games where the line moved (160 at that gap), but those sides covered 46.3% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 54% (152 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 31% (55 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenLAR -7.5

CurrentLAR -3

Total46.5 → 48.5

Last update6:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	LAR	LV	Over	Under	LAR	LV
BetMGMMGM	-3.5-110	+3.5-108	48.5-108	48.5-110	-190	+160
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-3.5-110	+3.5-110	48.5-107	48.5-113	-186	+162
BetRiversBetRivers	-4-109	+4-112	48.5-112	48.5-109	-210	+170
BetUSBetUS	-3.5-110	+3.5-110	48.5-110	48.5-110	-185	+159
BovadaBovada	-3.5-110	+3.5-110	48.5-105	48.5-115	-185	+160
DraftKingsDK	-3-118	+3-102	48.5-110	48.5-110	-175	+145
FanDuelFD	-3.5-114	+3.5-106	48.5-105	48.5-115	-196	+164
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-3.5-102	+3.5-108	48.5-102	48.5-113	-186	+162
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-3.5-110	+3.5-110	48.5-110	48.5-110	-191	+154

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 6:54 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

7 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	LAR	LV	Over	Under
BetMGMMGM	-2.5-120	+2.5+100	13.5-750	13.5+500
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-3-105	+3-115	23.5-110	23.5-110
BetRiversBetRivers	-1.5-127	+1.5+102	23.5-112	23.5-110
BetUSBetUS	-3-105	+3-115	23.5-110	23.5-110
BovadaBovada	-3-105	+3-115	23.5-110	23.5-110
DraftKingsDK	-2.5-122	+2.5+102	23.5-108	23.5-112
FanDuelFD	-2.5-120	+2.5+100	23.5-120	23.5+100

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

LAR -3

LV +3

Bets38% 62%

Money34% 66%

Total

Over 48.5Under 48.5

Bets63% 37%

Money83% 17%

Money is 20 pts ahead of bets on Over 48.5

Winner

LAR

Bets81% 19%

Money79% 21%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 3-point road favorite at LV, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 0.7 against an average line of 3; 55.3 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DET @ MIN 2023 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	30–24	W	O48
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Loose	CHI @ ATL 2026 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & rest	-1.5	31–23	W	O50.5
Loose	MIN @ SEA 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	27–24	W	O43.5
Loose	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Loose	LAC @ MIA 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	29–27	L	O45.5
Loose	HOU @ JAX 2024 · Week 13 · loose	-3.5	23–20	L	U44.5
Loose	DET @ LAC 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.5	41–38	W	O48
Loose	CLE @ HOU 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	14–45	L	O45
Loose	DET @ NO 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation	-4	33–28	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff

Model Favorite

Los Angeles Rams 62%

Projected LAR 26 – LV 22 · Model Favorite won 66.2% in backtest

Model line

LAR -5

Market LAR -3

Against the spread

No lean

Below the 2.5-point lean threshold.

Total

No lean

Model 48 · Below the 5-point lean threshold.

How the model gets there (points from LV’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)

SpreadLV rating edge−5.3+Home field+1.8+QB EPA gap−1.7=Model marginLAR by 5.2

TotalScoring ratings48.2=Model total48.2

Signals

The data signal, and 7 trends and market moves behind it

Strong Las Vegas Raiders ATS trend

Strong-or-stronger ATS leans went 22-16 (58%) in our 2023–25 backtest.

Slight Over trend

Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Los Angeles Rams ATS struggles (1-5)

Los Angeles Rams have covered only 17% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 62-65 (49%)

Los Angeles Rams 1-4 ATS as a favorite

Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 69-56 (55%)

Las Vegas Raiders ATS trend (5-1)

Las Vegas Raiders have covered 83% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 83-84 (50%)

Las Vegas Raiders 3-0 ATS at home

Strong against the spread at home this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-69 (48%)

Las Vegas Raiders 4-1 ATS as an underdog

Covering consistently in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 81-81 (50%)

Market moved toward Las Vegas Raiders

4.5 pts (LAR -7.5 → LAR -3), through the key number 7. · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)

Total moved up 2

46.5 → 48.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)

beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-2	1-4
LV WWWLW	5-1	83%	3-0	4-1

Venue/role: LAR away, as favorite; LV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
LV UOOOO	4-2	67%	3-3

In 334 games with totals 45.5–51.5, 51% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
LV	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Los Angeles Rams

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 1	vs LAC	No meeting since 2023
Nov 8	@ WSH	W28–20WU
Nov 15	@ ARI	L16–18LU

Las Vegas Raiders

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 1	@ NYJ	W16–12WU
Nov 8	@ SF	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	vs SEA	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LAR 6–1 LV LAR leads · 7 games since 2002 · LAR has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 20 2024	Las Vegas Raiders 15 @ Los Angeles Rams 20	LAR -7.5	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+3.0 →+3.1▲ 0.1#4

LV−3.0 →−2.1▲ 0.9#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

LAR

Longer bar = better

#12

Offense

Even

#13

Defense

◀ LAR better

#26

−0.5 #25

Turnovers

LV better ▶

+0.3 #15

68 plays #3

Pace

◀ LAR faster

64 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #20	27.0 #26	LAR
Yards / play	5.87 #8	5.99 #29	LAR
EPA / play	+0.04 #12	+0.03 #22	LAR
Success rate	47% #7	45% #26	LAR

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #6	23.0 #18	LV
Yards / play	5.33 #16	4.85 #7	LAR
EPA / play	+0.02 #14	−0.04 #10	Even
Success rate	43% #17	44% #18	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	3.3 #23	7.2 #14	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	9.7 #3	12.0 #14
LV allowed	5.0 #17	6.7 #17	11.7 #18	8.7 #31	6.7 #15	15.3 #27

LV scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	5.2 #8	7.5 #11	12.7 #11	4.3 #19	10.0 #2	14.3 #8
LAR allowed	2.5 #6	6.7 #17	9.2 #8	5.8 #24	7.5 #19	13.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.