Packers @ Lions: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Detroit Lions · Division game

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

4-2 · Power #14

projected

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Detroit Lions

3-2 · Power #12

projected

GB 40%

60% DET

Spread

DET -3

open DET -1.5

Total

53.5

model 50

Spread edge

GB by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:34 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenDET -1.5

CurrentDET -3

Total50.5 → 53.5

Last update6:34 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenDET -1.5

1.5 → DET

NowDET -3

1.5 pts toward Detroit Lions

Total

Open50.5

▲ 3

Now53.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened DET -1.5 · now DET -3 · moved 1.5 toward DETmodel DET -2

model DET -2

Openline modelNow

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (204 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (24 games since 2025)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:34 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenDET -1.5

CurrentDET -3

Total50.5 → 53.5

Last update6:34 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	GB	DET	Over	Under	GB	DET
BetMGMMGM	+3-102	-3-118	53.5-110	53.5-108	+140	-165
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+3+100	-3-120	53.5-110	53.5-110	+157	-180
BetRiversBetRivers	+3-106	-3-117	53-112	53-109	+140	-175
BetUSBetUS	+3.5-110	-3.5-110	53.5-110	53.5-110	+159	-185
BovadaBovada	+3.5-115	-3.5-105	53.5-110	53.5-110	+160	-185
DraftKingsDK	+3-102	-3-118	53.5-118	53.5-102	+150	-180
FanDuelFD	+3+100	-3-122	52.5-120	52.5-102	+148	-176
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+3.5-110	-3.5+100	53.5-107	53.5-107	+157	-180
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+3.5-115	-3.5-105	53.5-110	53.5-110	+149	-184

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 6:34 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

6 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	GB	DET	Over	Under
BetMGMMGM	+2.5-102	-2.5-118	16.5-800	16.5+500
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+2.5+100	-2.5-120	26.5-120	26.5+100
BetRiversBetRivers	+1.5-109	-1.5-113	27.5+102	27.5-127
BovadaBovada	+3-115	-3-105	27-105	27-115
DraftKingsDK	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	26.5-125	26.5+105
FanDuelFD	+2.5-105	-2.5-115	26.5-110	26.5-110

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Total

Over 53.5Under 53.5

Bets14% 86%

Money19% 81%

Winner

DET

Bets29% 71%

Money30% 70%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 3-point home favorite against GB, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.9 against an average line of 3.3; 54.9 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DAL vs ARI 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	17–27	L	U53.5
Close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Close	LAR vs BUF 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	34–37	L	O55.5
Close	DAL vs LAC 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & situation	-1.5	17–34	L	O50.5
Close	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Close	CHI vs NE 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	30–24	W	O50.5
Close	SF vs CHI 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar season form	-4.5	42–38	L	O51.5
Close	DEN vs DAL 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & total	-4.5	44–24	W	O51.5
Close	MIN vs CHI 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-3	17–19	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB LLWWW	3-3	50%	1-2	2-1
DET LLPLW	1-3-1	25%	0-1-1	1-2-1

Venue/role: GB away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UOUUU	2-4	33%	4-2
DET OOOOO	5-0	100%	3-2

In 80 games with totals 50.5–56.5, 53% went over; 0% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
DET	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Green Bay Packers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 29	vs CAR	L13–16LU
Nov 8	@ NE	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	vs MIN	L22–39LO

Detroit Lions

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 1	vs MIN	L10–23LU
Nov 8	@ MIA	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	vs NE	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

GB 36–18 DET GB leads · 54 games since 1999 · GB has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 27 2025	Green Bay Packers 31 @ Detroit Lions 24	—	—
Sep 7 2025	Detroit Lions 13 @ Green Bay Packers 27	GB -1.5	GB W
Dec 5 2024	Green Bay Packers 31 @ Detroit Lions 34	DET -3.5	GB W
Nov 3 2024	Detroit Lions 24 @ Green Bay Packers 14	DET -2.5	DET W
Nov 23 2023	Green Bay Packers 29 @ Detroit Lions 22	DET -8.5	GB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+0.9 →+0.6▼ 0.3#14

DET+1.6 →+1.6–#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

DET

#19

Offense

DET better ▶

#10

Defense

◀ GB better

#28

+0.7 #6

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #5

61 plays #22

Pace

DET faster ▶

66 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #23	29.6 #30	GB
Yards / play	5.43 #14	5.63 #24	GB
EPA / play	−0.01 #15	+0.15 #31	GB
Success rate	40% #25	48% #28	Even

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #2	20.8 #10	DET
Yards / play	5.93 #6	4.64 #3	Even
EPA / play	+0.18 #3	−0.06 #7	Even
Success rate	49% #3	44% #21	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #12	12.3 #14	3.7 #21	4.7 #26	8.3 #30
DET allowed	5.6 #25	5.8 #11	11.4 #17	8.8 #32	8.2 #25	17.0 #32

DET scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	2.0 #29	11.4 #3	13.4 #10	9.0 #2	9.0 #4	18.0 #1
GB allowed	1.7 #2	6.3 #16	8.0 #4	4.7 #18	8.2 #22	12.8 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.