Lions @ Dolphins: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Miami Dolphins

Detroit Lions

3-2 · Power #12

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Miami Dolphins

0-5 · Power #31

projected

DET 72%

28% MIA

Spread

DET -6.5

Total

47.5

model 49

Spread edge

DET by 0.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDET -6.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDET -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now47.5

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 45% (76 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDET -6.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 6.5-point road favorite at MIA, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 10 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 55%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 6.3; 55.5 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 10 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	37–27	W	O46.5
Very close	CIN @ MIA 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	31–24	L	O45.5
Very close	TB @ CAR 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	26–23	L	O46.5
Very close	ARI @ CAR 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	30–36	L	O47.5
Very close	CIN @ CAR 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Very close	ATL @ CAR 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	38–20	W	O45.5
Close	LAR @ NYG 2023 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & season form	-6	26–25	L	O43.5
Close	BAL @ CLE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	24–29	L	O44.5
Close	SF @ LAR 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Close	TB @ DAL 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar total & rest	-4.5	24–26	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET LLPLW	1-3-1	25%	1-2	1-2-1
MIA LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-1	2-3

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; MIA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OOOOO	5-0	100%	3-2
MIA UOUUO	2-3	40%	0-5

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	8-2 80%
MIA	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Detroit Lions

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs NE	No meeting since 2023
Nov 22	vs TB	W24–9WU
Nov 26	vs CHI	W19–16WU

Miami Dolphins

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ IND	L8–33LU
Nov 22	@ BUF	W30–13WU
Nov 29	vs NYJ	W34–10WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

DET 3–4 MIA MIA leads · 7 games since 2000 · MIA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.6 →+1.6–#12

MIA−1.7 →−4.4▼ 2.7#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

DET

Longer bar = better

MIA

Offense

◀ DET better

#27

#28

Defense

Even

#26

+0.8 #5

Turnovers

◀ DET better

−0.8 #28

66 plays #7

Pace

◀ DET faster

55 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #2	26.4 #24	DET
Yards / play	5.93 #6	5.50 #21	DET
EPA / play	+0.18 #3	+0.11 #29	DET
Success rate	49% #3	49% #30	DET

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #32	29.6 #30	Even
Yards / play	5.11 #19	5.63 #24	MIA
EPA / play	−0.12 #28	+0.15 #31	Even
Success rate	38% #29	48% #28	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	2.0 #29	11.4 #3	13.4 #10	9.0 #2	9.0 #4	18.0 #1
MIA allowed	6.2 #29	8.8 #27	15.0 #32	8.2 #30	3.2 #2	11.4 #13

MIA scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.8 #28	2.4 #30	5.2 #31	4.6 #17	4.2 #29	8.8 #29
DET allowed	5.6 #25	5.8 #11	11.4 #17	8.8 #32	8.2 #25	17.0 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.