Buccaneers @ Bears: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Chicago Bears

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1-5 · Power #19

projected

Sun 8:20 PM ET

Chicago Bears

5-2 · Power #4

projected

TB 36%

64% CHI

Spread

CHI -3.5

Total

48.5

model 47

Spread edge

CHI by 4.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCHI -3.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowCHI -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now48.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCHI -3.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 3.5-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.1 against an average line of 3.3; 42.5 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5
Very close	DET vs MIN 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	30–20	W	O47.5
Very close	SF vs LAR 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	6–12	L	U48.5
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Very close	HOU vs DEN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	22–17	W	U47
Very close	LAC vs PIT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	25–10	W	U45.5
Very close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Very close	LAC vs DEN 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	7–24	L	U45.5
Close	ARI vs WSH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	14–42	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-1	1-3
CHI WWLWW	5-2	71%	3-1	4-2

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OUUUO	3-3	50%	1-5
CHI UUUOO	3-4	43%	5-2

In 334 games with totals 45.5–51.5, 51% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	4-6 40%
CHI	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ DET	L9–24LU
Nov 30	vs CAR	W16–14LU
Dec 6	vs LAC	W40–17WO

Chicago Bears

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs NO	W26–14WU
Nov 26	@ DET	L16–19LU
Dec 6	vs JAX	W35–16WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TB 10–10 CHI Series tied · 20 games since 1999 · TB has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 17 2023	Chicago Bears 17 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB−0.2 →−1.2▼ 1.0#19

CHI+0.4 →+3.2▲ 2.8#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

CHI

#27

Offense

CHI better ▶

#11

Defense

◀ TB better

#17

−0.5 #22

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

−0.1 #18

63 plays #13

Pace

CHI faster ▶

72 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Advantage: CHI defense

	TB off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #25	20.4 #8	CHI
Yards / play	4.66 #25	6.25 #32	TB
EPA / play	−0.13 #29	0.00 #19	CHI
Success rate	39% #27	42% #8	CHI

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #8	23.0 #17	CHI
Yards / play	5.42 #15	5.01 #9	TB
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	−0.09 #4	TB
Success rate	47% #10	41% #5	TB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.2 #25	6.2 #17	9.3 #23	6.7 #8	3.8 #31	10.5 #24
CHI allowed	2.4 #5	8.3 #23	10.7 #15	3.7 #8	6.0 #9	9.7 #6

CHI scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	7.9 #3	7.1 #15	15.0 #3	6.4 #10	4.3 #28	10.7 #22
TB allowed	5.7 #26	6.0 #12	11.7 #18	3.3 #5	6.8 #16	10.2 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.