Chiefs @ Seahawks: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Seattle Seahawks

Kickoff forecast52°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

5-0 · Power #2

projected

Sun 8:20 PM ET

Seattle Seahawks

3-3 · Power #1

projected

KC 42%

58% SEA

Spread

SEA -2.5

open SEA -3

Total

42.5

model 42.5

Spread edge

KC by 3.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenSEA -3

CurrentSEA -2.5

Total45.5 → 42.5

Last update6:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenSEA -3

0.5 → KC

NowSEA -2.5

0.5 pts toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open45.5

▼ 3

Now42.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened SEA -3 · unchangedmodel KC -1

model KC -1

Openline modelNow

↗ Line toward model

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: KC by 4.0 pts (open +3, now +2.5). In 2025–2026, with a 3+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 63.8% of the 69 games where the line moved (86 at that gap), but those sides covered 39.5% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 24% (38 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenSEA -3

CurrentSEA -2.5

Total45.5 → 42.5

Last update6:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	KC	SEA	Over	Under	KC	SEA
BetMGMMGM	+2.5-102	-2.5-118	42.5-108	42.5-110	+125	-145
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+3-117	-3-103	42.5-110	42.5-110	+126	-146
BetRiversBetRivers	+2.5-106	-2.5-115	42.5-112	42.5-109	+116	-141
BetUSBetUS	+2+100	-2-120	42.5-110	42.5-110	+125	-145
BovadaBovada	+2.5+100	-2.5-120	42.5-110	42.5-110	+130	-150
DraftKingsDK	+2.5-102	-2.5-118	42.5-110	42.5-110	+120	-142
FanDuelFD	+2.5-104	-2.5-118	42.5-112	42.5-108	+122	-144
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+2.5+104	-2.5-115	42.5-107	42.5-107	+126	-146
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	42.5-110	42.5-110	+115	-141

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 6:54 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

7 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	KC	SEA	Over	Under
BetMGMMGM	+0.5-105	-0.5-112	10.5-1000	10.5+600
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+0.5-105	-0.5-115	21-110	21-110
BetRiversBetRivers	+1.5-129	-1.5+104	21.5-109	21.5-114
BetUSBetUS	+0.5-105	-0.5-115	21-110	21-110
BovadaBovada	+0.5-110	-0.5-110	21-105	21-115
DraftKingsDK	+0.5-105	-0.5-115	21.5-105	21.5-115
FanDuelFD	+1.5-115	-1.5-105	20.5-105	20.5-115

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

KC +2.5

SEA -2.5

Bets89% 11%

Money89% 11%

Winner

SEA

Bets71% 29%

Money84% 16%

Money is 13 pts ahead of bets on KC

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 2.5-point home favorite against KC, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 9 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 2.3 against an average line of 2.7; 54.9 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 9 overs, 5 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs DET 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	16–9	W	U45.5
Close	DEN vs BUF 2025 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	33–30	W	O45.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	34–27	W	O41.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	33–26	W	O45.5
Close	SEA vs SF 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	29–32	L	O46.5
Close	SEA vs LAR 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-1.5	38–37	L	O42.5
Close	SEA vs LAR 2025 · Postseason · close · similar rest	-2.5	31–27	W	O45.5
Close	NE vs HOU 2025 · Postseason · close · similar spread	-3	28–16	W	O40.5
Close	SEA vs HOU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-3.5	27–19	W	O41.5
Close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	17–40	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	—
SEA WLPLL	1-3-2	25%	0-1-2	1-3-2

Venue/role: KC away, as underdog; SEA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC UOUOU	2-3	40%	5-0
SEA UOOOU	3-3	50%	3-3

In 460 games with totals 39.5–45.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
SEA	7-3 70%	5-3-2 63%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kansas City Chiefs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 1	@ DEN	W31–10WU
Nov 8	vs NYJ	W23–20
Nov 15	@ ATL	W22–17WU

Seattle Seahawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 2	vs CHI	W6–3LU
Nov 8	vs ARI	W31–7WU
Nov 15	@ LV	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

KC 7–5 SEA KC leads · 12 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+0.7 →+3.8▲ 3.1#2

SEA+3.2 →+4.3▲ 1.1#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

SEA

Offense

◀ KC better

#19

Defense

Even

+1.0 #2

Turnovers

◀ KC better

−0.2 #19

62 plays #19

Pace

SEA faster ▶

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Even matchup

	KC off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #5	20.3 #6	Even
Yards / play	6.70 #1	3.96 #1	Even
EPA / play	+0.16 #5	−0.13 #2	Even
Success rate	49% #2	37% #2	Even

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	SEA off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #13	16.6 #2	KC
Yards / play	5.26 #17	4.81 #6	KC
EPA / play	−0.08 #24	−0.10 #3	KC
Success rate	41% #22	38% #3	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	8.0 #1	6.8 #16	14.8 #4	3.4 #23	8.6 #10	12.0 #14
SEA allowed	2.8 #7	9.2 #28	12.0 #20	2.8 #3	5.0 #6	7.8 #3

SEA scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	4.0 #18	4.8 #25	8.8 #24	7.2 #6	8.7 #7	15.8 #4
KC allowed	6.2 #29	3.8 #2	10.0 #11	1.8 #1	4.2 #4	6.0 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.