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NCAAF · 2026

NCAAF Week 8 games

FinalCurrentUpcomingWeek 8: 1st-half lines & halftime results ›Spread edge and Total edge = our projection vs the market ⓘ · Trend = this season’s results
7 finalFavorites 3-4 ATS3 upsetsO/U 5-2Model Favorite 4-3Week in numbers ›

Week in numbers

Tap a number to filter the games below
Games567 final · 49 to play
Favorites ATS3-443% covered
Upsets3outright
Over / Under5-271% over
Model Favorite4-357% won
Totals moved 1+ ptTap to filter
Moved up29 24 not final or push
Over3 60%Under2 40%
Moved down19 18 not final or push
Over1 100%Under0 0%
Ratings disagree with the opening line by 3+ pts
TA&M @ ALASat 3:30 PM
Toward model
RatingsALAOpen-2.5Now-13.5Gap12.7Closed11 of 12.7
SDSU @ CSUSat 6:30 PM
Toward model
RatingsCSUOpen+3Now+1.5Gap8.4Closed1.5 of 8.4
NDSU @ UNMSat 10:00 PM
Toward model
RatingsUNMOpen-3.5Now-4.5Gap7.7Closed1 of 7.7
WVU @ TCUSat 12:00 PM
Toward model
RatingsTCUOpen-7Now-10.5Gap7.0Closed3.5 of 7.0
HAW @ NIUSat 3:30 PM
Toward model
RatingsNIUOpen+7.5Now+4Gap6.8Closed3.5 of 6.8
MSU @ UCLASat 3:30 PM
Toward model
RatingsUCLAOpen-13.5Now-14.5Gap6.4Closed1 of 6.4
COLO @ OKSTSat 7:00 PM
Toward model
RatingsCOLOOpen+14.5Now+13.5Gap6.2Closed1 of 6.2
DUKE @ UVAFri 7:00 PM
Toward model
RatingsDUKEOpen+6.5Now+2.5Gap5.5Closed4 of 5.5
IU @ MICHSat 12:00 PM
Toward model
RatingsIUOpen-6.5Now-7.5Gap5.2Closed1 of 5.2
UNT @ NAVYSat 3:30 PM
Toward model
RatingsUNTOpen-1.5Now-3Gap5.0Closed1.5 of 5.0
HOU @ UTAHSat 10:15 PM
Not moved
RatingsUTAHOpen-6.5Now-6.5Gap4.7Closed—
IOWA @ MINNSat 3:30 PM
Toward model
RatingsIOWAOpen-4.5Now-7.5Gap4.5Closed3 of 4.5
Top 12 of 18; every game card shows its own. In 2025–2026, with a 3+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 70% of the 390 games where the line moved (444 at that gap); those teams covered 52.2% vs the opener, below the 52.4% break-even. How we tested this
Did the team the spread moved toward cover? ATS vs the closing line, by how far it moved
Moved towardThis week20262024–2026
Any move
2–340%42 to play
178–153–654%
789–801–850%
1.5+ pts
1–150%26 to play
111–93–354%
446–443–450%
3+ pts
—15 to play
61–49–155%
215–206–251%
5+ pts
—7 to play
18–1358%
47–4551%
7+ pts
—1 to play
3–175%
13–765%
Covered–didn’t–push; % leaves out pushes and is grey under 10 games; green or red from 10 games. ClickTap a row or count to filter.
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Tuesday, Oct 20

3
Final · Conf
Middle Tennessee
3-3 · #126
26
Florida International
3-3 · #105
23
Spread
FIU -10.5
✓ MTSU W ATS
Total
46.5 ▲1
▲ Over 49 · Q4
Projected
17–28
✗ FIU lost
Model: FIU by 3.5 ✗ Model: Under 1.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Conf
Missouri State
2-4 · #130
38
Delaware
2-4 · #113
61
Spread
DEL -3
✓ DEL W ATS
Total
54.5 ▲2
▲ Over 99 · Q3
Projected
26–30
✓ DEL won
Trend: Over ✓ Model: DEL by 3.5 ✓ Model: Over 2 ✓ Cover settled: Q3
Final · Conf
South Alabama
4-2 · #101
13
Marshall
3-3 · #114
20
Spread
USA -1.5
✓ MRSH W ATS
Total
66.5 ▲4
▼ Under 33
Projected
33–32
✗ USA lost
Trend: USA ATS ✗Trend: Over ✗ Model: USA by 1 ✗ Model: Under 2 ✓ Cover settled: Q2

Wednesday, Oct 21

1
Final · Conf
New Mexico State
2-4 · #119
30
Sam Houston
1-5 · #124
24
Spread
NMSU -3
✓ NMSU W ATS
Total
46.5 ▼1
▲ Over 54 · Q3
Projected
25–23
✓ NMSU won
Model: SHSU by 5 ✗ Model: Over 1 ✓ Cover settled: Q2

Thursday, Oct 22

3
Final · Conf
James Madison
7-0 · #51
31
App State
4-2 · #94
34
Spread
JMU -12.5
✓ APP W ATS
Total
56.5
▲ Over 65 · Q4
Projected
33–21
✗ JMU lost
Trend: JMU ATS ✗ Model: APP by 3 ✓ Model: Under 2 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Conf
Liberty
5-1 · #67
34
Kennesaw State
1-5 · #117
6
Spread
LIB -8.5
✓ LIB W ATS
Total
50.5 ▲3
▼ Under 40
Projected
28–20
✓ LIB won
Model: LIB by 0.5 ✓ Model: Under 2.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Conf
East Carolina
3-3 · #92
34
Memphis
5-2 · #62
41
Spread
MEM -10.5
✓ ECU W ATS
Total
55.5 ▲2
▲ Over 75 · Q4
Projected
22–33
✓ MEM won
Trend: Over ✓ Model: MEM by 1 ✗ Model: Under 0.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1

Friday, Oct 23

5
Conf
Duke
4-2 · #43
+2.5
Virginia
4-3 · #49
-2.5
Spread
UVA -2.5
↗ 4 toward DUKE
Total
47.5 ▼6
model 47.5
Spread edge
DUKE by 1.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: Under
Non-conf
Massachusetts
4-3 · #123
+12.5
UConn
3-3 · #93
-12.5
Spread
CONN -12.5
↗ 3 toward MASS
Total
53.5 ▲4
Under 1.5
Spread edge
Even
matches market
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: MASS ATSTrend: Over
Conf
Army
4-2 · #78
+1.5
Tulsa
4-3 · #87
-1.5
Spread
TLSA -1.5
no move
Total
52.5 ▲2
Under 1
Spread edge
Even
matches market
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: TLSA ATSTrend: Over
Conf
Air Force
5-1 · #90
-6
Wyoming
4-3 · #122
+6
Spread
AFA -6
↗ 0.5 toward WYO
Total
46.5 ▲4
model 46.5
Spread edge
AFA by 1.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: AFA ATSTrend: Over
Conf
NC State
3-3 · #61
-7.5
Stanford
3-4 · #97
+7.5
Spread
NCSU -7.5
no move
Total
55.5
Over 1
Spread edge
STAN by 1
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: NCSU ATS

Saturday, Oct 24

44
Conf
Pittsburgh
5-2 · #39
+19.5
Miami
6-0 · #3
-19.5
Spread
MIA -19.5
↗ 4 toward PITT
Total
48.5 ▼5
Over 4
Spread edge
MIA by 1
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: PITT ATSTrend: Under
Conf
Indiana
6-1 · #7
-7.5
Michigan
4-2 · #34
+7.5
Spread
IU -7.5
↗ 1 toward IU
Total
42.5 ▼10
Over 4
Spread edge
IU by 4
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: MICH ATSTrend: Under
Conf
Texas Tech
6-0 · #15
-11.5
Cincinnati
4-2 · #64
+11.5
Spread
TTU -11.5
no move
Total
56.5
Over 2
Spread edge
TTU by 1
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: CIN ATS
Conf
LSU
5-2 · #6
-7
Auburn
4-2 · #25
+7
Spread
LSU -7
↗ 0.5 toward LSU
Total
51.5 ▲1
Under 3.5
Spread edge
LSU by 2
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Conf
California
3-4 · #85
+18.5
SMU
5-1 · #35
-18.5
Spread
SMU -18.5
↗ 2 toward SMU
Total
55.5 ▲3
Under 1.5
Spread edge
Even
matches market
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: SMU ATSTrend: Over
Conf
Rutgers
2-4 · #77
+15.5
Northwestern
5-1 · #30
-15.5
Spread
NU -15.5
↗ 1 toward RUTG
Total
58.5
Under 1
Spread edge
NU by 2
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: NU ATSTrend: Over
Conf
West Virginia
4-3 · #73
+10.5
TCU
3-3 · #36
-10.5
Spread
TCU -10.5
↗ 3.5 toward TCU
Total
57.5 ▼1
Under 1.5
Spread edge
TCU by 3.5
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: TCU ATS
Conf
Rice
1-6 · #121
+8.5
Florida Atlantic
4-2 · #102
-8.5
Spread
FAU -8.5
↗ 2 toward RICE
Total
53.5 ▼5
Over 1
Spread edge
Even
matches market
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: FAU ATSTrend: Under
Conf
Western Michigan
5-2 · #88
+3
Toledo
5-2 · #75
-3
Spread
TOL -3
↗ 1.5 toward TOL
Total
47.5 ▲3
Over 1
Spread edge
TOL by 2
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: TOL ATSTrend: Over
Conf
Baylor
4-2 · #38
-1.5
Kansas
2-4 · #46
+1.5
Spread
BAY -1.5
no move
Total
53.5 ▼1
Under 1
Spread edge
KU by 1.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: BAY ATS
Conf
Akron
1-6 · #133
+3
Kent State
2-5 · #131
-3
Spread
KENT -3
↗ 0.5 toward AKR
Total
47.5 ▲4
Over 1.5
Spread edge
KENT by 0.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: KENT ATSTrend: Over
Conf
Miami (OH)
4-3 · #106
-3.5
Central Michigan
3-4 · #120
+3.5
Spread
M-OH -3.5
↗ 5 toward M-OH
Total
40.5 ▼2
Over 6
Spread edge
CMU by 1.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: Under
Conf
Oregon
4-2 · #9
-10
Illinois
3-3 · #53
+10
Spread
ORE -10
↗ 2.5 toward ILL
Total
49.5 ▼2
Over 5.5
Spread edge
ORE by 1
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Conf
BYU
6-0 · #14
-7.5
UCF
3-3 · #55
+7.5
Spread
BYU -7.5
↗ 2 toward UCF
Total
43.5 ▼2
Under 1
Spread edge
BYU by 2
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: Under
Conf
Michigan State
2-5 · #69
+14.5
UCLA
6-0 · #16
-14.5
Spread
UCLA -14.5
↗ 1 toward UCLA
Total
43.5 ▼4
Over 6
Spread edge
UCLA by 5.5
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: UCLA ATSTrend: Under
Conf
Tennessee
6-1 · #11
+2.5
South Carolina
3-3 · #28
-2.5
Spread
SC -2.5
↗ 5 toward SC
Total
50.5 ▼1
Over 2.5
Spread edge
TENN by 7
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: TENN ATS
Conf
Texas A&M
4-3 · #24
+13.5
Alabama
5-2 · #5
-13.5
Spread
ALA -13.5
↗ 11 toward ALA
Total
50.5 ▼4
Under 3
Spread edge
ALA by 1.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: ALA ATSTrend: Under
Conf
Iowa
5-1 · #27
-7.5
Minnesota
4-2 · #65
+7.5
Spread
IOWA -7.5
↗ 3 toward IOWA
Total
40.5 ▼2
Under 1
Spread edge
IOWA by 1.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: Under
Conf
Oklahoma
3-3 · #23
-3
Mississippi State
4-2 · #29
+3
Spread
OU -3
↗ 1.5 toward OU
Total
47.5 ▲1
Over 2.5
Spread edge
MSST by 3.5
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Conf
Boston College
3-3 · #79
+6
Georgia Tech
2-4 · #68
-6
Spread
GT -6
↗ 1.5 toward GT
Total
50.5 ▲1
Under 4.5
Spread edge
GT by 1
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: BC ATS
Conf
North Texas
4-2 · #54
-3
Navy
2-4 · #89
+3
Spread
UNT -3
↗ 1.5 toward UNT
Total
62.5 ▲1
Under 3
Spread edge
UNT by 3.5
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: UNT ATSTrend: Over
Conf
Hawai'i
1-6 · #118
-4
Northern Illinois
0-6 · #134
+4
Spread
HAW -4
↗ 3.5 toward NIU
Total
47.5 ▲2
model 47.5
Spread edge
NIU by 3.5
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: HAW ATSTrend: Over
Conf
Sacramento State
1-6 · #138
+14.5
Ball State
2-5 · #132
-14.5
Spread
BALL -14.5
↗ 5 toward BALL
Total
51.5 ▲2
Over 1.5
Spread edge
SAC by 1.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: BALL ATSTrend: Over
Conf
Bowling Green
2-5 · #129
+3
Buffalo
4-3 · #125
-3
Spread
BUFF -3
↗ 1.5 toward BGSU
Total
44.5 ▲1
Over 2.5
Spread edge
BUFF by 0.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: BGSU ATS
Conf
Kansas State
4-2 · #41
-2.5
Arizona State
3-3 · #66
+2.5
Spread
KSU -2.5
↗ 0.5 toward ASU
Total
55.5 ▼1
Under 2
Spread edge
Even
matches market
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Conf
Eastern Michigan
4-4 · #128
+10
Ohio
5-2 · #96
-10
Spread
OHIO -10
↗ 0.5 toward OHIO
Total
48.5 ▼1
Over 3
Spread edge
OHIO by 2
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: OHIO ATS
Conf
UL Monroe
0-6 · #137
+12.5
Troy
3-3 · #98
-12.5
Spread
TROY -12.5
↗ 5 toward ULM
Total
50.5
Under 0.5
Spread edge
TROY by 7
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: TROY ATS
Conf
San José State
4-3 · #111
+6.5
Nevada
2-4 · #109
-6.5
Spread
NEV -6.5
↗ 1 toward NEV
Total
46.5 ▲1
Over 2
Spread edge
SJSU by 1
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Conf
Louisiana
5-2 · #81
-10
Southern Miss
1-5 · #127
+10
Spread
UL -10
↗ 0.5 toward USM
Total
52.5
model 52.5
Spread edge
UL by 1.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: UL ATS
Conf
Old Dominion
2-5 · #112
+13.5
Louisiana Tech
4-2 · #83
-13.5
Spread
LT -13.5
↗ 5 toward LT
Total
45.5 ▲1
Under 4
Spread edge
ODU by 2.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: LT ATS
Conf
Boise State
5-1 · #37
-13.5
Washington State
1-6 · #100
+13.5
Spread
BOIS -13.5
↗ 0.5 toward WSU
Total
53.5 ▲3
Under 1.5
Spread edge
BOIS by 2
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: WSU ATSTrend: Over
Conf
San Diego State
3-4 · #108
-1.5
Colorado State
2-4 · #110
+1.5
Spread
SDSU -1.5
↗ 1.5 toward CSU
Total
61.5 ▲2
Under 5
Spread edge
CSU by 7
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: CSU ATSTrend: Over
Conf
Colorado
2-4 · #63
+13.5
Oklahoma State
4-2 · #44
-13.5
Spread
OKST -13.5
↗ 1 toward COLO
Total
56.5 ▲1
Under 4.5
Spread edge
COLO by 5
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: OKST ATS
Conf
Virginia Tech
5-2 · #45
+2.5
Clemson
4-2 · #52
-2.5
Spread
CLEM -2.5
↗ 4 toward CLEM
Total
49.5
Over 2.5
Spread edge
VT by 1.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Conf
Georgia State
4-2 · #91
-2.5
Arkansas State
3-4 · #103
+2.5
Spread
GAST -2.5
↗ 1 toward GAST
Total
57.5 ▲2
Over 1.5
Spread edge
ARST by 1.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: GAST ATSTrend: Over
Conf
Ole Miss
5-1 · #12
+3
Texas
4-2 · #8
-3
Spread
TEX -3
↗ 6.5 toward MISS
Total
53.5 ▼1
Over 0.5
Spread edge
TEX by 3.5
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: MISS ATS
Conf
Vanderbilt
3-4 · #60
+10.5
Kentucky
6-1 · #26
-10.5
Spread
UK -10.5
↗ 1 toward UK
Total
52.5
Under 0.5
Spread edge
UK by 3
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: UK ATSTrend: Over
Conf
USC
6-1 · #18
-3
Wisconsin
4-2 · #33
+3
Spread
USC -3
↗ 1.5 toward USC
Total
49.5 ▼3
Over 1.5
Spread edge
WIS by 1.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: Under
Conf
Iowa State
3-3 · #50
+10
Arizona
5-1 · #31
-10
Spread
ARIZ -10
no move
Total
51.5 ▲1
Under 1.5
Spread edge
Even
matches market
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Conf
Syracuse
2-4 · #70
+9.5
North Carolina
4-2 · #47
-9.5
Spread
UNC -9.5
no move
Total
47.5 ▲3
Over 0.5
Spread edge
SYR by 2
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: Over
Conf
Utah State
2-4 · #95
+13.5
Texas State
3-3 · #58
-13.5
Spread
TXST -13.5
↗ 4 toward TXST
Total
60.5 ▲2
Under 3
Spread edge
Even
matches market
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: TXST ATSTrend: Over
Conf
UTSA
6-1 · #71
-3
Tulane
3-3 · #86
+3
Spread
UTSA -3
↗ 1 toward TULN
Total
51.5 ▲1
model 51.5
Spread edge
TULN by 1
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: TULN ATS
Conf
North Dakota State
6-1 · #74
+4.5
New Mexico
5-1 · #56
-4.5
Spread
UNM -4.5
↗ 1 toward UNM
Total
40.5 ▼6
Over 5
Spread edge
UNM by 6.5
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: UNM ATSTrend: Under
Conf
Houston
6-1 · #21
+6.5
Utah
6-0 · #10
-6.5
Spread
UTAH -6.5
no move
Total
56.5 ▲6
Over 1.5
Spread edge
UTAH by 4.5
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: UTAH ATSTrend: Over
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StatusMatchupSpreadMoveTotalModelSignalDetails
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Hover a column name for what it means. Records are before kickoff; #N = power rank. Data signal badges: green = ATS, teal = Over, purple = Under; solid = moderate or strong lean (blue left edge on the row); ✓/✗ = how the lean did. ↗ Line toward model the line (or total) has moved toward the model's pick since the open; hover it for how such picks have done. small sample · QB ⓘ quarterback on the injury report (hover or tap it to see who). In our 2023–26 backtest, moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 365-359 (50%) and total leans 21-19 (53%) over 2024–26, so treat them as context, not picks.
Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total