Kansas State @ Arizona State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 3:45 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Arizona State · Conference game

Kickoff forecast76°F9 mphDryWeather watch ›

Kansas State

4-2 · Power #41

projected

Sat 3:45 PM ET

Arizona State

3-3 · Power #66

projected

KSU 57%

43% ASU

Spread

KSU -2.5

open KSU -3

Total

55.5

model 53.5

Spread edge

Even

matches market

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenKSU -3

CurrentKSU -2.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenKSU -3

0.5 → ASU

NowKSU -2.5

0.5 pts toward Arizona State

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Now55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened KSU -3 · now KSU -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward ASUmodel KSU -2.5 matches the line

model KSU -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelNow

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (289 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 57% (55 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenKSU -3

CurrentKSU -2.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:08

Kansas State at Arizona State: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 10:02 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

Here’s how our model sees it. Kansas State visits Arizona State, Saturday at 3:45 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, Kansas State sits 41st, Arizona State 66th. That’s about 6 points better than Arizona State on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Kansas State has held steady around 41st, while Arizona State has dropped from 39th to 66th. Kickoff forecast at Mountain America Stadium: 78 degrees, dry, wind 5 miles per hour. Kansas State has the better offense, 29th to 68th. On defense, Kansas State ranks 51st and Arizona State 95th. Against the spread, Kansas State is 3 and 3 and Arizona State is 2 and 4. Our model projects Kansas State 29, Arizona State 26, with a 57 percent win chance. Kansas State is favored by 2.5, down from 3 at the open, toward our model. The total opened at 56.5 and sits at 55.5. Our model makes it Kansas State by 2.5, with a total near 55. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	KSU	ASU	Over	Under	KSU	ASU
BetMGMMGM	-2-110	+2-108	55.5-105	55.5-112	-130	+110
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-2-110	+2-110	56+100	56-120	-130	+110
BetRiversBetRivers	-2-113	+2-110	55.5-109	55.5-114	-127	+102
BetUSBetUS	-2.5-110	+2.5-110	55.5-110	55.5-110	-135	+115
BovadaBovada	-2.5-110	+2.5-110	55-115	55-105	-135	+115
DraftKingsDK	-2.5-112	+2.5-108	55.5-108	55.5-112	-142	+120
FanDuelFD	-2.5-110	+2.5-110	55.5-104	55.5-118	-128	+106
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-2-106	+2-106	56+102	56-119	-130	+110
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-2.5-110	+2.5-110	55.5-110	55.5-110	-125	+102

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	KSU	ASU	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	-2.5-113	+2.5-107	27.5-119	27.5-101
DraftKingsDK	-2.5-112	+2.5-108	27.5-120	27.5+100
FanDuelFD	-2.5-114	+2.5-106	27.5-120	27.5-102

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Winner

KSU

ASU

Bets89% 11%

Money29% 71%

Money is 60 pts ahead of bets on ASU

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 2.5-point road favorite at ASU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 3.4; 56 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DUKE @ CAL 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	45–21	W	O54.5
Very close	ISU @ COLO 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–24	L	U52.5
Very close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–27	L	U50
Very close	TCU @ CIN 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	20–13	W	U58.5
Very close	TCU @ KSU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	28–41	L	O54.5
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Very close	ARIZ @ COLO 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	52–17	W	O52.5
Very close	WIS @ PUR 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	38–17	W	O54
Very close	UCF @ CIN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	28–26	L	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU WLLLW	3-3	50%	0-1	3-3
ASU LWLLL	2-4	33%	1-2	0-2

Venue/role: KSU away, as favorite; ASU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU UOOUO	4-2	67%	4-2
ASU OUOUO	4-2	67%	3-3

In 1386 games with totals 51.5–59.5, 50% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
ASU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kansas State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ COLO	W24–14LU
Nov 7	vs OKST	W14–6LU
Nov 14	@ TCU	W41–28WO

Arizona State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ BYU	W28–23WO
Nov 7	vs COLO	W42–17WO
Nov 14	@ UCF	W35–31WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KSU 1–6 ASU ASU leads · 7 games since 1964 · ASU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Arizona State 24 @ Kansas State 14	KSU -7.5	ASU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+6.3 →+6.5▲ 0.2#41

ASU+6.4 →+0.7▼ 5.7#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

KSU

Longer bar = better

ASU

#29

Offense

◀ KSU better

#68

#51

Defense

◀ KSU better

#95

−0.3 #97

Turnovers

◀ KSU better

−0.7 #116

71 plays #27

Pace

◀ KSU faster

68 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU offense

	KSU off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #33	32.0 #121	KSU
Yards / play	6.58 #25	5.61 #83	KSU
PPA / play	+0.24 #28	+0.13 #92	KSU
Success rate	48% #30	42% #85	KSU

When ASU has the ball

Even matchup

	ASU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #57	20.0 #40	Even
Yards / play	6.20 #51	5.07 #47	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #105	+0.13 #89	Even
Success rate	44% #60	37% #28	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	6.3 #65	11.7 #27	18.0 #41	8.5 #20	9.0 #29	17.5 #21
ASU allowed	8.7 #130	8.7 #96	17.3 #120	4.7 #67	10.0 #132	14.7 #117

ASU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	9.2 #23	9.0 #72	18.2 #40	9.2 #13	4.0 #123	13.2 #71
KSU allowed	5.2 #82	6.2 #52	11.3 #60	6.3 #93	2.3 #2	8.7 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.