Virginia Tech @ Syracuse: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Syracuse · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Virginia Tech

5-3 · Power #38

final

Final

Syracuse

5-2 · Power #43

▲ winner

Closing spread

VT -3.5

✓ SYR W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

VT 28–25 SYR

✗ VT (60%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -3.5

CloseVT -3.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVT -3.5

no move

CloseVT -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▼ 3

Close50.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VT -3.5 · unchangedmodel VT -4.5

model VT -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 44% (102 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -3.5

CloseVT -3.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 3.5-point road favorite at SYR, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: SYR won 38–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.9 against an average line of 3.7; 45.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCST @ FSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	28–14	W	U55
Very close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	42–14	W	O53
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	14–27	L	U50
Very close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	10–27	L	U49.5
Very close	OKST @ WVU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	24–3	W	U49
Very close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	16–24	L	U52
Very close	WVU @ HOU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	39–41	L	O49.5
Very close	CLEM @ SC 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-7.5	16–7	W	U48.25
Very close	ISU @ OKST 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.75	14–20	L	U47.5
Very close	KU @ OKST 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3	32–39	L	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT LWWWW	5-3	63%	3-1	4-3
SYR LLWWL	3-4	43%	1-3	2-1

Venue/role: VT away, as favorite; SYR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT OOUOU	5-3	63%	5-3
SYR UUOUU	2-5	29%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 318 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VT	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
SYR	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

VT 1–0 SYR VT leads · 1 game since 2023 · VT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2023	Syracuse 10 @ Virginia Tech 38	VT -2.5	VT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+4.6 →+8.8▲ 4.2#26

SYR−2.1 →+2.5▲ 4.6#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

SYR

#67

Offense

Even

#57

#37

Defense

◀ VT better

#94

+0.6 #32

Turnovers

◀ VT better

−0.4 #100

63 plays #106

Pace

SYR faster ▶

81 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Advantage: VT offense

	VT off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #49	27.0 #85	VT
Yards / play	5.95 #63	5.97 #97	VT
PPA / play	+0.14 #62	+0.15 #95	VT
Success rate	41% #93	43% #98	Even

When SYR has the ball

Even matchup

	SYR off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #48	20.4 #32	Even
Yards / play	5.57 #87	5.22 #49	VT
PPA / play	+0.16 #57	+0.02 #30	VT
Success rate	46% #34	39% #37	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

VT scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	6.1 #71	8.1 #66	14.3 #66	5.9 #74	10.6 #6	16.5 #27
SYR allowed	5.3 #71	10.3 #116	15.6 #101	3.4 #18	7.6 #94	11.0 #49

SYR scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	5.4 #81	9.3 #55	14.7 #58	8.3 #28	7.0 #70	15.3 #43
VT allowed	4.3 #45	4.9 #21	9.1 #26	6.5 #89	3.9 #16	10.4 #41

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.