West Virginia @ Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F11 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

West Virginia

4-1 · Power #39

final

Final

Houston

2-3 · Power #88

▲ winner

Closing spread

WVU -3

✓ HOU W

Total

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

WVU 25–23 HOU

✗ WVU (57%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWVU -3

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWVU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWVU -3

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WVU as a 3-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 41–39 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 49, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.4 against an average line of 2.7; 41.4 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	52–14	W	O48.5
Very close	RUTG @ NU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	7–21	L	U45
Very close	CAL @ STAN 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	41–11	W	O46
Very close	MIA @ UVA 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	14–12	L	U48.5
Very close	BSU @ CSU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	28–19	W	U51.5
Very close	PITT @ FSU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-1.5	41–17	W	O52.5
Very close	MSU @ IU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	20–15	W	U48.5
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	ISU @ OKST 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.75	14–20	L	U47.5
Very close	MRSH @ ODU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	12–0	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WVU LWWWW	4-1	80%	1-1	2-0
HOU WLLWL	2-3	40%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: WVU away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU –OUUU	1-3	25%	4-1
HOU UOUOO	3-2	60%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 71 earlier overs in games with totals 45–53, 39% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVUlast 5	4-1 80%	4-1 80%	1-3 25%
HOUlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WVU−6.5 →+1.4▲ 7.9#56

HOU−2.3 →−2.4▼ 0.1#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

WVU

Longer bar = better

HOU

#94

Offense

Even

#82

#33

Defense

◀ WVU better

#102

0.0 #73

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+1.2 #8

68 plays #63

Pace

HOU faster ▶

74 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WVU has the ball

Even matchup

	WVU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	26.4 #86	29.8 #100	Even
Yards / play	5.14 #106	5.99 #99	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #107	+0.18 #107	Even
Success rate	41% #78	44% #102	WVU

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: WVU defense

	HOU off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #82	19.0 #31	WVU
Yards / play	5.59 #76	4.92 #28	WVU
PPA / play	+0.06 #98	+0.01 #38	WVU
Success rate	42% #72	38% #33	WVU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WVU scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	4.2 #102	11.0 #26	15.2 #68	4.8 #96	6.4 #79	11.2 #96
HOU allowed	11.2 #131	8.2 #85	19.4 #126	3.2 #28	4.2 #28	7.4 #17

HOU scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	6.8 #51	9.6 #55	16.4 #56	2.8 #125	5.6 #92	8.4 #119
WVU allowed	5.4 #82	5.4 #31	10.8 #51	2.8 #16	5.4 #51	8.2 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.