Coastal Carolina @ App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Tue, Oct 10, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at App State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F5 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Coastal Carolina

2-3 · Power #70

▲ winner

Final

App State

3-2 · Power #61

final

Closing spread

APP -4.5

✓ CCU W

Total

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

CCU 27–32 APP

✗ APP (62%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAPP -4.5

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAPP -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–6.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 51% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAPP -4.5

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like APP as a 4.5-point home favorite against CCU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CCU won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 59, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.6 against an average line of 4.7; 59.4 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM vs ECU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-4	29–30	L	O58.75
Very close	LOU vs BC 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4	28–14	W	U57.5
Very close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Very close	FRES vs BSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	14–40	L	U61
Very close	MEM vs TULN 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-5.5	33–28	L	O58
Very close	NEV vs FRES 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-6.5	37–26	W	O59
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	31–12	W	U58.5
Very close	SJSU vs USU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	17–48	L	O58
Very close	BSU vs NEV 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	31–41	L	O59
Very close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & season form	-6	17–26	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CCU WWWLL	3-2	60%	1-1	1-1
APP LWWPL	2-2-1	50%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: CCU away, as underdog; APP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CCU –UOUU	1-3	25%	2-3
APP OOOUO	4-1	80%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 44% of games with totals 55–63 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CCUlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	1-3 25%
APPlast 5	3-2 60%	2-2-1 50%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CCU 5–8 APP APP leads · 13 games since 2005 · APP has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CCU−2.7 →−1.1▲ 1.6#67

APP−1.3 →−1.8▼ 0.5#72

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

CCU

Longer bar = better

APP

#65

Offense

APP better ▶

#47

#67

Defense

◀ CCU better

#93

+0.2 #58

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #70

68 plays #54

Pace

APP faster ▶

79 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CCU has the ball

Advantage: CCU offense

	CCU off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #62	30.8 #105	CCU
Yards / play	6.22 #47	5.72 #86	CCU
PPA / play	+0.11 #73	+0.10 #75	Even
Success rate	41% #77	45% #106	CCU

When APP has the ball

Even matchup

	APP off	CCU def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #20	23.6 #58	APP
Yards / play	5.89 #61	5.70 #84	APP
PPA / play	+0.14 #63	+0.06 #53	Even
Success rate	45% #44	42% #73	APP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CCU scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CCU scored	7.6 #38	8.0 #79	15.6 #65	11.0 #9	4.2 #111	15.2 #47
APP allowed	4.2 #54	11.0 #116	15.2 #94	8.6 #112	4.4 #30	13.0 #77

APP scoring against the CCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	7.4 #46	8.6 #68	16.0 #60	10.2 #15	8.8 #29	19.0 #13
CCU allowed	4.0 #43	8.2 #84	12.2 #68	5.4 #62	6.0 #62	11.4 #62

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.