Marshall @ Georgia State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Georgia State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F12 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Marshall

4-1 · Power #96

final

Final

Georgia State

4-1 · Power #91

▲ winner

Closing spread

GAST -1.5

✓ GAST W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

MRSH 26–27 GAST

✓ GAST (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseGAST -1.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseGAST -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 47% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseGAST -1.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GAST as a 1.5-point home favorite against MRSH, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: GAST won 41–24; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 2.2; 50.6 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BC vs LOU 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	34–27	W	O56.5
Very close	GAST vs TROY 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-1	7–28	L	U51
Very close	WAKE vs UVA 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	40–23	W	O57
Very close	WSU vs STAN 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-1	34–31	W	O53
Very close	TULN vs ECU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	24–9	W	U55.5
Very close	LOU vs BC 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	28–14	W	U57.5
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	MEM vs HOU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	32–33	L	O57.5
Very close	GAST vs GASO 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	30–24	W	O51
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	31–23	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRSH LWWLL	2-3	40%	1-1	0-1
GAST LWWWL	3-2	60%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: MRSH away, as underdog; GAST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRSH UOUO–	2-2	50%	4-1
GAST OUOUU	2-3	40%	4-1

Went over in Q4. Of 90 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 38% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRSHlast 5	4-1 80%	2-3 40%	2-2 50%
GASTlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MRSH−2.3 →−1.3▲ 1.0#69

GAST−3.6 →−2.9▲ 0.7#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MRSH

Longer bar = better

GAST

#83

Offense

GAST better ▶

#57

#37

Defense

◀ MRSH better

#66

−0.2 #89

Turnovers

GAST better ▶

+0.6 #31

75 plays #13

Pace

◀ MRSH faster

66 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MRSH has the ball

Even matchup

	MRSH off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #51	23.8 #60	Even
Yards / play	5.54 #82	5.91 #94	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #112	+0.09 #69	GAST
Success rate	40% #87	38% #39	GAST

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: MRSH defense

	GAST off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #57	26.0 #74	Even
Yards / play	6.21 #47	5.33 #55	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #42	−0.09 #6	MRSH
Success rate	41% #82	32% #11	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MRSH scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	3.4 #112	10.2 #38	13.6 #80	10.4 #9	7.6 #50	18.0 #17
GAST allowed	1.2 #4	5.4 #33	6.6 #10	10.2 #131	7.0 #78	17.2 #122

GAST scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	7.0 #44	10.2 #38	17.2 #44	7.6 #45	6.2 #83	13.8 #65
MRSH allowed	4.2 #54	8.8 #95	13.0 #78	7.6 #102	5.4 #51	13.0 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.