Georgia State @ Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Louisiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Georgia State

5-1 · Power #91

▲ winner

Final

Louisiana

4-2 · Power #87

final

Closing spread

UL -3

✓ GAST W

Total

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 29–31 UL

✗ UL (57%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUL -3

Total62

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUL -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close62

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 56%, covered 44% (54 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUL -3

Total62

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 3-point home favorite against GAST, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GAST won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 62, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 3.8; 63 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	35–21	W	U64
Very close	APP vs CCU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	24–27	L	U59
Very close	LOU vs BC 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	28–14	W	U57.5
Very close	MEM vs ECU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-4	29–30	L	O58.75
Very close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Very close	FRES vs BSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-4	14–40	L	U61
Very close	KU vs OKST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	37–16	W	U60
Very close	MIZ vs TENN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–62	L	O66.25
Very close	FRES vs NEV 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	34–32	L	O64.5
Very close	TTU vs KU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	43–28	W	O63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST WWWLW	4-2	67%	2-0	1-0
UL LWLLW	2-4	33%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; UL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST UOUUO	3-3	50%	5-1
UL OOOOU	4-2	67%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 41% of games with totals 58–66 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASTlast 6	5-1 83%	4-2 67%	3-3 50%
ULlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−3.6 →−1.1▲ 2.5#69

UL+1.8 →−3.0▼ 4.8#82

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

GAST

Longer bar = better

#47

Offense

UL better ▶

#22

#69

Defense

Even

#80

+0.7 #28

Turnovers

◀ GAST better

−0.8 #124

67 plays #70

Pace

◀ GAST faster

64 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: GAST offense

	GAST off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #39	29.2 #96	GAST
Yards / play	6.26 #41	5.22 #48	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #35	+0.11 #78	GAST
Success rate	42% #71	44% #96	GAST

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #21	23.8 #59	UL
Yards / play	7.01 #10	6.04 #105	UL
PPA / play	+0.20 #38	+0.09 #65	UL
Success rate	49% #19	39% #45	UL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	8.2 #31	10.7 #32	18.8 #24	6.3 #66	7.5 #48	13.8 #60
UL allowed	4.5 #58	5.0 #22	9.5 #30	8.0 #113	11.7 #131	19.7 #131

UL scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	6.3 #64	10.8 #30	17.2 #44	7.5 #45	10.8 #8	18.3 #12
GAST allowed	2.2 #13	6.2 #43	8.3 #16	9.7 #127	5.8 #57	15.5 #107

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.