Texas State @ Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Louisiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F12 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Texas State

4-1 · Power #73

final

Final

Louisiana

3-2 · Power #87

▲ winner

Closing spread

UL -1

✓ UL W

Total

67.5

▼ Under · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 30–31 UL

✓ UL (53%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUL -1

Total67.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUL -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close67.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUL -1

Total67.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 1-point home favorite against TXST, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 34–30; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 64 points stayed under 67.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 6.1 against an average line of 2.5; 72.3 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY vs GAST 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	34–36	L	O68.5
Very close	MIZ vs TENN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–62	L	O66.25
Very close	BYU vs UVA 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	66–49	W	O66.5
Very close	MEM vs UTSA 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	28–31	L	U66.5
Close	NCST vs LIB 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-4	15–14	L	U66.5
Close	ODU vs GASO 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	23–28	L	U66
Close	WKU vs UTSA 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	46–52	L	O71.25
Close	LOU vs UVA 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	33–34	L	U69.5
Close	GAST vs GASO 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	41–33	W	O66.5
Close	MRSH vs WKU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-0.75	21–53	L	U75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST WWWLW	4-1	80%	3-0	2-0
UL LLWLL	1-4	20%	0-2	0-3

Venue/role: TXST away, as underdog; UL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST –UOUO	2-2	50%	4-1
UL UOOOO	4-1	80%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 36% of games with totals 63.5–71.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXSTlast 5	4-1 80%	4-1 80%	2-2 50%
ULlast 5	3-2 60%	1-4 20%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TXST 0–13 UL UL leads · 13 games since 2013 · UL has won the last 13 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST+3.4 →−1.9▼ 5.3#72

UL+1.8 →−2.5▼ 4.3#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

TXST

Longer bar = better

#14

Offense

◀ TXST better

#31

#64

Defense

Even

#65

0.0 #74

Turnovers

◀ TXST better

−1.0 #128

64 plays #99

Pace

Even

65 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	43.4 #8	29.0 #99	TXST
Yards / play	7.73 #8	5.00 #34	TXST
PPA / play	+0.27 #23	+0.06 #58	TXST
Success rate	49% #16	41% #70	TXST

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #30	29.0 #98	UL
Yards / play	6.96 #17	5.37 #56	UL
PPA / play	+0.18 #52	+0.02 #41	Even
Success rate	48% #26	40% #62	UL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	12.6 #8	14.6 #6	27.2 #5	7.0 #57	9.2 #24	16.2 #36
UL allowed	3.4 #36	4.0 #14	7.4 #20	9.0 #115	12.6 #133	21.6 #131

UL scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	6.2 #57	11.6 #23	17.8 #44	7.6 #48	10.4 #11	18.0 #18
TXST allowed	5.6 #82	8.4 #91	14.0 #86	6.2 #80	8.8 #111	15.0 #103

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.