Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Thu, Oct 5, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Louisiana Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F6 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Western Kentucky

3-2 · Power #83

▲ winner

Final

Louisiana Tech

3-3 · Power #116

final

Closing spread

WKU -8

✓ LT W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

WKU 34–27 LT

✓ WKU (69%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWKU -8

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWKU -8

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWKU -8

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as an 8-point road favorite at LT, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WKU won 35–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 6.8; 59 points a game (usually 54.3).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU @ NIU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	42–21	W	O58.5
Very close	FRES @ UNLV 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-8.5	37–30	L	O62
Very close	WMU @ EMU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	21–22	L	U66
Very close	WMU @ BUFF 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	24–17	P	U59.5
Very close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Very close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	27–34	L	O56
Very close	TOL @ NIU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	52–32	W	O59
Very close	BYU @ LIB 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	14–41	L	U58
Very close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Very close	GASO @ BALL 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	40–3	W	U61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU WLLWW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-1
LT LWLWW	3-3	50%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: WKU away, as favorite; LT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU –OOUU	2-2	50%	3-2
LT –OOUU	2-2	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKUlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	2-2 50%
LTlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU+3.1 →−2.8▼ 5.9#81

LT−2.5 →−8.2▼ 5.7#105

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

WKU

Longer bar = better

#65

Offense

Even

#75

#107

Defense

LT better ▶

#66

+1.4 #9

Turnovers

◀ WKU better

−0.2 #86

68 plays #55

Pace

◀ WKU faster

63 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #55	25.7 #77	WKU
Yards / play	5.61 #80	5.31 #56	LT
PPA / play	+0.18 #57	+0.09 #72	Even
Success rate	42% #67	39% #59	Even

When LT has the ball

Advantage: LT offense

	LT off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #82	29.2 #99	Even
Yards / play	5.96 #59	6.32 #119	LT
PPA / play	+0.11 #73	+0.16 #100	LT
Success rate	41% #85	45% #108	LT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	10.2 #19	7.4 #87	17.6 #48	5.6 #83	8.4 #41	14.0 #63
LT allowed	7.5 #114	9.0 #98	16.5 #107	4.0 #41	5.2 #52	9.2 #38

LT scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	4.0 #101	9.7 #55	13.7 #79	4.5 #101	8.8 #35	13.3 #71
WKU allowed	4.2 #53	13.0 #126	17.2 #109	6.2 #82	5.8 #62	12.0 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.