Georgia Southern @ Ball State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Ball State

Weather at kickoff73°F11 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Southern

2-1 · Power #92

▲ winner

Final

Ball State

1-2 · Power #113

final

Closing spread

GASO -5.5

✓ GASO W

Total

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 30–24 BALL

✓ GASO (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGASO -5.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseGASO -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGASO -5.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GASO as a 5.5-point road favorite at BALL, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: GASO won 40–3; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 60, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11 against an average line of 5.2; 65 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTSA @ LT 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	45–16	W	O59.5
Very close	CMU @ EMU 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	31–23	W	U59
Very close	TOL @ NIU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	52–32	W	O59
Very close	CMU @ OHIO 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	30–27	L	U57.5
Very close	NIU @ BALL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.25	38–44	L	O58.5
Very close	TULN @ ECU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	38–21	W	U63.5
Close	WMU @ NIU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-7	42–21	W	O58.5
Close	BYU @ STAN 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	35–26	W	O57.5
Close	CLT @ FIU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	45–33	W	O60.75
Close	KENT @ M-OH 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	24–27	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO PWL	1-1-1	50%	0-1	1-0-1
BALL LPW	1-1-1	50%	1-0	0-1-1

Venue/role: GASO away, as favorite; BALL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO UOU	1-2	33%	2-1
BALL OUO	2-1	67%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 37% of games with totals 56–64 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASOlast 3	2-1 67%	1-1-1 50%	1-2 33%
BALLlast 3	1-2 33%	1-1-1 50%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO+2.5 →−0.9▼ 3.4#69

BALL−7.6 →−11.4▼ 3.8#124

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

GASO

Longer bar = better

BALL

#44

Offense

◀ GASO better

#108

#103

Defense

Even

#101

−2.0 #134

Turnovers

BALL better ▶

−0.3 #88

76 plays #13

Pace

◀ GASO faster

67 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: GASO offense

	GASO off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #54	32.0 #117	GASO
Yards / play	6.12 #50	6.07 #112	GASO
PPA / play	+0.17 #60	+0.15 #104	GASO
Success rate	54% #11	39% #71	GASO

When BALL has the ball

Even matchup

	BALL off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #110	23.3 #78	GASO
Yards / play	4.67 #125	5.94 #105	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #110	+0.19 #109	Even
Success rate	41% #85	47% #121	BALL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	9.3 #21	10.3 #48	19.7 #31	7.0 #52	5.7 #82	12.7 #70
BALL allowed	1.0 #9	17.0 #130	18.0 #112	11.7 #128	2.3 #9	14.0 #96

BALL scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	2.3 #112	3.3 #122	5.7 #127	4.7 #96	10.3 #18	15.0 #51
GASO allowed	0.0 #1	9.7 #102	9.7 #55	9.3 #116	4.3 #40	13.7 #90

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.