Central Michigan @ South Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at South Alabama

Weather at kickoff90°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Central Michigan

1-2 · Power #122

▲ winner

Final

South Alabama

2-1 · Power #49

final

Closing spread

USA -16.5

✓ CMU W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 18–34 USA

✗ USA (88%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSA -16.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSA -16.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSA -16.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 16.5-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CMU won 34–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.7 against an average line of 16.1; 51.7 points a game (usually 55.4). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5
Very close	TROY vs ULM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-15	34–16	W	O48.5
Close	UK vs VAN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-17	21–24	L	U45.5
Close	MD vs UVA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-16.25	42–14	W	O48.25
Close	M-OH vs BGSU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-17	34–7	W	U52
Close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Close	USA vs ULM 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread	-17	41–34	L	O51
Close	LT vs USM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-15.5	19–35	L	O47.5
Close	TROY vs TXST 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-16.5	17–14	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU LLW	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1
USA LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: CMU away, as underdog; USA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU –OO	2-0	100%	1-2
USA –UU	0-2	0%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 43 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMUlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-0 100%
USAlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−7.2 →−13.1▼ 5.9#128

USA−6.2 →−2.4▲ 3.8#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CMU

Longer bar = better

USA

#105

Offense

USA better ▶

#61

#129

Defense

USA better ▶

#76

−0.3 #83

Turnovers

USA better ▶

+0.3 #55

64 plays #94

Pace

◀ CMU faster

62 plays #112

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: USA defense

	CMU off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #101	20.3 #57	USA
Yards / play	4.83 #119	5.90 #103	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #79	+0.09 #81	Even
Success rate	37% #119	39% #64	USA

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #76	38.0 #128	USA
Yards / play	6.25 #42	7.81 #134	USA
PPA / play	+0.28 #33	+0.36 #131	USA
Success rate	40% #94	48% #123	USA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	4.7 #85	11.7 #35	16.3 #53	3.3 #112	3.3 #116	6.7 #122
USA allowed	3.3 #44	7.0 #72	10.3 #61	2.3 #22	7.7 #97	10.0 #54

USA scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	3.3 #104	10.0 #50	13.3 #82	7.0 #49	8.0 #45	15.0 #51
CMU allowed	7.0 #107	10.3 #105	17.3 #109	8.0 #107	12.7 #128	20.7 #126

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.