Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 1:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Central Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

2-2 · Power #126

final

Final

Central Michigan

2-2 · Power #122

▲ winner

Closing spread

CMU -10

✓ EMU W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 20–29 CMU

✓ CMU (73%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCMU -10

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCMU -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCMU -10

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CMU as a 10-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CMU won 26–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.1 against an average line of 8.7; 43.1 points a game (usually 55). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-7	10–16	L	U44
Close	FRES vs SDSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-10.75	32–28	L	O44.5
Close	BALL vs CONN 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	25–21	L	U47.5
Close	WKU vs USM 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-7.5	10–7	L	U45
Close	NIU vs BGSU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-9	34–26	L	O44.75
Close	WKU vs FIU 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-7	38–21	W	O42
Close	ILL vs NU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-7	47–14	W	O44.5
Close	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-8.25	26–3	W	U44
Close	ARMY vs CONN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-10.5	34–17	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU LWLL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-1
CMU LLWW	2-2	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; CMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU OUUU	1-3	25%	2-2
CMU –OOO	3-0	100%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 42 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMUlast 4	2-2 50%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%
CMUlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	3-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−3.1 →−13.1▼ 10.0#127

CMU−7.2 →−12.5▼ 5.3#124

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

EMU

Longer bar = better

CMU

#126

Offense

CMU better ▶

#79

#82

Defense

◀ EMU better

#127

+0.2 #61

Turnovers

◀ EMU better

−0.4 #96

56 plays #130

Pace

CMU faster ▶

63 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Even matchup

	EMU off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	16.2 #131	33.4 #120	Even
Yards / play	4.65 #127	7.11 #132	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #124	+0.34 #132	Even
Success rate	37% #121	47% #123	Even

When CMU has the ball

Even matchup

	CMU off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #89	22.4 #50	EMU
Yards / play	5.39 #92	5.96 #105	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #49	+0.10 #75	CMU
Success rate	41% #85	44% #97	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	4.8 #90	6.8 #97	11.5 #98	0.0 #132	3.0 #124	3.0 #132
CMU allowed	8.8 #120	7.8 #81	16.5 #107	6.8 #94	12.8 #130	19.5 #125

CMU scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	3.5 #106	12.0 #25	15.5 #63	4.3 #101	6.0 #76	10.3 #100
EMU allowed	1.8 #11	7.3 #69	9.0 #46	9.5 #121	3.0 #12	12.5 #83

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.