Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Thu, Sep 28, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Western Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

1-3 · Power #99

final

Final

Western Kentucky

2-2 · Power #83

▲ winner

Closing spread

WKU -6.5

✓ WKU W

Total

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 27–33 WKU

✓ WKU (68%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWKU -6.5

Total61

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWKU -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close61

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWKU -6.5

Total61

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as a 6.5-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WKU won 31–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 61, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.9 against an average line of 6.6; 53.1 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM vs TLSA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	26–10	W	U62.5
Very close	LOU vs FSU 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-5.5	48–16	W	O62.25
Very close	ARST vs USA 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	31–38	L	O63.5
Very close	KENT vs EMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-7.5	24–31	L	U60
Very close	MEM vs TULN 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	33–28	L	O58
Very close	EMU vs OHIO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	26–34	L	U61.75
Very close	BALL vs BUFF 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	20–3	W	U59.5
Very close	KENT vs BALL 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	20–27	L	U61.75
Very close	NCST vs GT 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	23–13	W	U61
Very close	EMU vs TXST 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread	-7.5	59–21	W	O62.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU LWLL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-1
WKU WLLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; WKU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU –UUO	1-2	33%	1-3
WKU –OOU	2-1	67%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 42% of games with totals 57–65 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSUlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	1-2 33%
WKUlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−13.1 →−8.0▲ 5.1#101

WKU+3.1 →−4.8▼ 7.9#86

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MTSU

Longer bar = better

WKU

#94

Offense

WKU better ▶

#67

#101

Defense

◀ MTSU better

#120

−0.3 #93

Turnovers

WKU better ▶

+1.3 #13

68 plays #62

Pace

◀ MTSU faster

65 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: MTSU offense

	MTSU off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #113	34.0 #121	Even
Yards / play	5.31 #96	6.61 #128	MTSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #70	+0.23 #118	MTSU
Success rate	39% #98	45% #111	Even

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: WKU offense

	WKU off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #55	31.0 #110	WKU
Yards / play	5.63 #75	5.82 #97	WKU
PPA / play	+0.17 #55	+0.16 #99	WKU
Success rate	41% #84	44% #97	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	6.0 #61	5.3 #116	11.3 #102	4.3 #98	5.5 #87	9.8 #103
WKU allowed	5.3 #85	15.5 #131	20.8 #124	6.0 #86	7.3 #86	13.3 #91

WKU scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	10.3 #18	6.0 #105	16.3 #58	7.0 #51	8.5 #48	15.5 #49
MTSU allowed	6.8 #102	7.0 #69	13.8 #87	6.8 #92	10.5 #122	17.3 #118

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.