Colorado State @ Middle Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Middle Tennessee

Weather at kickoff77°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Colorado State

0-2 · Power #109

▲ winner

Final

Middle Tennessee

1-2 · Power #99

final

Closing spread

MTSU -3.5

✓ CSU W

Total

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

CSU 25–29 MTSU

✗ MTSU (59%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMTSU -3.5

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMTSU -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMTSU -3.5

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MTSU as a 3.5-point home favorite against CSU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CSU won 31–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 50, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 3.8; 45.2 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Very close	USA vs GASO 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	41–14	W	O49.5
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Very close	GT vs UVA 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	9–16	L	U48
Close	TXST vs ARST 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-6	16–13	L	U50
Close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-5	13–9	L	U48
Close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	27–20	W	O46
Close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-2	30–38	L	O52
Close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Close	MD vs IU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	38–35	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSU LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1
MTSU LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: CSU away, as underdog; MTSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSU OO	2-0	100%	0-2
MTSU –UU	0-2	0%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 54 earlier overs in games with totals 46–54, 37% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%
MTSUlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CSU−7.1 →−7.7▼ 0.6#102

MTSU−13.1 →−8.3▲ 4.8#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CSU

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#92

Offense

Even

#95

#115

Defense

MTSU better ▶

#97

−1.0 #122

Turnovers

MTSU better ▶

0.0 #72

76 plays #14

Pace

◀ CSU faster

62 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CSU has the ball

Even matchup

	CSU off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #71	31.0 #113	CSU
Yards / play	5.67 #77	5.77 #92	Even
PPA / play	−0.05 #128	+0.10 #82	MTSU
Success rate	41% #90	44% #99	Even

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #112	46.5 #133	MTSU
Yards / play	5.40 #92	6.13 #116	MTSU
PPA / play	+0.17 #58	+0.14 #99	MTSU
Success rate	37% #117	46% #110	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

CSU scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	8.5	3.5	12.0	0.0	14.0	14.0
MTSU allowed	5.7 #92	9.3 #97	15.0 #96	6.7 #89	9.3 #111	16.0 #112

MTSU scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	4.7 #88	4.7 #116	9.3 #115	5.7 #77	5.3 #90	11.0 #91
CSU allowed	10.5	5.0	15.5	6.0	17.5	23.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.