Arizona @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Stanford · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Arizona

2-1 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Stanford

1-2 · Power #106

final

Closing spread

ARIZ -13

✓ STAN W

Total

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 36–23 STAN

✓ ARIZ (81%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARIZ -13

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseARIZ -13

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARIZ -13

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as a 13-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 21–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 60, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Below normal · usually 80%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 12.4; 64.3 points a game (usually 55.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WAKE @ ODU 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-13.75	27–24	L	U60.5
Very close	FRES @ HAW 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-10.75	24–27	L	U64.25
Very close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Very close	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12	45–31	W	O55
Very close	MD @ IU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-11	38–33	L	O63.5
Very close	CCU @ ULM 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	28–21	L	U58
Very close	AFA @ USU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & rest	-11.5	27–34	L	O53.75
Close	MRSH @ CLT 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	49–28	W	O62
Close	UNC @ FSU 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	28–31	L	U65
Close	MEM @ TEM 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-11	31–34	L	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0
STAN WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as favorite; STAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ UUU	0-3	0%	2-1
STAN OUU	1-2	33%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 36% of games with totals 56–64 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZlast 3	2-1 67%	3-0 100%	0-3 0%
STANlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ+1.3 →+2.2▲ 0.9#50

STAN+2.6 →−9.7▼ 12.3#116

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

STAN

#29

Offense

◀ ARIZ better

#78

#33

Defense

◀ ARIZ better

#125

−1.7 #133

Turnovers

STAN better ▶

−1.0 #116

63 plays #106

Pace

STAN faster ▶

67 plays #60

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #57	36.7 #126	ARIZ
Yards / play	7.69 #9	6.79 #130	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.22 #44	+0.32 #130	ARIZ
Success rate	56% #5	47% #115	ARIZ

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ defense

	STAN off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #95	14.7 #26	ARIZ
Yards / play	5.65 #75	4.83 #45	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.14 #67	−0.12 #13	ARIZ
Success rate	42% #75	37% #47	ARIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	2.3 #115	9.3 #54	11.7 #99	12.7 #6	6.7 #70	19.3 #20
STAN allowed	8.0 #118	17.3 #131	25.3 #131	1.0 #12	10.3 #121	11.3 #74

STAN scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	4.7 #88	8.0 #78	12.7 #90	3.0 #116	7.7 #53	10.7 #95
ARIZ allowed	4.7 #77	2.0 #6	6.7 #23	2.3 #22	3.3 #21	5.7 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.