Sacramento State @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Stanford

Weather at kickoff70°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Sacramento State

0-0

▲ winner

Final

Stanford

1-1 · Power #106

final

Closing spread

STAN -7

✓ SAC W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

SAC 25–32 STAN

✗ STAN (70%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSTAN -7

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSTAN -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSTAN -7

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like STAN as a 7-point home favorite against SAC, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SAC won 30–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 53 points stayed under 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 6.5; 56.7 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs USA 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6	24–38	L	O57.5
Very close	TULN vs USF 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	45–14	W	U59.5
Very close	MIA vs MSU 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	17–38	L	U57.5
Very close	LOU vs FSU 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	48–16	W	O62.25
Close	TLSA vs NIU 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	38–35	L	O63
Close	CMU vs BALL 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	16–17	L	U63.5
Close	BALL vs BUFF 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-6	20–3	W	U59.5
Close	LT vs CLT 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	42–32	W	O58.25
Close	UK vs MISS 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	41–42	L	O63
Close	TULN vs TEM 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.75	38–3	W	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC	0-0	—	—	—
STAN WL	1-1	50%	—	1-0

Venue/role: SAC away, as underdog; STAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC	0-0	—	0-0
STAN OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 41% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STANlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SAC

Longer bar = better

STAN

#40

Offense

◀ SAC better

#79

#95

Defense

◀ SAC better

#124

0.0 #76

Turnovers

◀ SAC better

−1.0 #117

69 plays #51

Pace

Even

67 plays #62

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SAC has the ball

Advantage: SAC offense

	SAC off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #70	36.7 #124	SAC
Yards / play	6.49 #34	6.79 #128	SAC
PPA / play	+0.32 #22	+0.32 #128	SAC
Success rate	49% #32	47% #117	SAC

When STAN has the ball

Even matchup

	STAN off	SAC def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #98	23.0 #75	SAC
Yards / play	5.65 #78	5.86 #102	STAN
PPA / play	+0.14 #65	+0.18 #109	STAN
Success rate	42% #76	43% #92	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.