San Diego State @ Oregon State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Oregon State

Weather at kickoff79°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

San Diego State

2-1 · Power #112

final

Final

Oregon State

2-0 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORST -24.5

✓ SDSU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 14–36 ORST

✓ ORST (95%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -24.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORST -24.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -24.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 9 games most like ORST as a 24.5-point home favorite against SDSU, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ORST won 26–9; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 9 similar games. 35 points stayed under 48.5, as in 4 of 9.

Favorite won

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 9 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 14.6 against an average line of 23.8; 49.7 points a game (usually 55.8). When games like this go over ›

All 9 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CCU vs KU 2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & rest	-27	49–22	P	O52
Close	AFA vs NEV 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-24	48–20	W	O47
Close	JMU vs TXST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-21.75	40–13	W	O51.5
Loose	AUB vs SJSU 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & situation	-24	24–16	L	U48.5
Loose	MICH vs MSU 2020 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-21.5	24–27	L	U51.5
Loose	UK vs NIU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-26.75	31–23	L	O53
Loose	CIN vs USF 2020 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-22	28–7	L	U45.5
Loose	MRSH vs RICE 2020 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread	-24.5	0–20	L	U42.5
Loose	ARK vs GASO 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-23	45–10	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU WLL	1-2	33%	—	0-1
ORST WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: SDSU away, as underdog; ORST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU –OU	1-1	50%	2-1
ORST –O	1-0	100%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 61% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSUlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	1-1 50%
ORSTlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SDSU 2–6 ORST ORST leads · 8 games since 1972 · ORST has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU+1.0 →−7.3▼ 8.3#110

ORST+11.2 →+5.2▼ 6.0#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

SDSU

Longer bar = better

ORST

#99

Offense

ORST better ▶

#14

#103

Defense

ORST better ▶

#21

+0.5 #45

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #44

66 plays #75

Pace

◀ SDSU faster

63 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: ORST defense

	SDSU off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #118	11.0 #13	ORST
Yards / play	4.91 #110	4.13 #15	ORST
PPA / play	+0.06 #102	−0.18 #4	ORST
Success rate	43% #64	37% #50	Even

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: ORST offense

	ORST off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #18	25.5 #88	ORST
Yards / play	7.44 #14	6.02 #110	ORST
PPA / play	+0.42 #13	+0.14 #96	ORST
Success rate	54% #11	47% #117	ORST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 48 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	6.7 #21	6.7 #33	13.3 #31	3.0 #42	5.7 #28	8.7 #42
ORST allowed	0.0	1.5	1.5	0.0	10.5	10.5

ORST scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	10.5	19.0	29.5	8.5	10.5	19.0
SDSU allowed	4.3 #24	11.3 #43	15.7 #38	2.3 #7	7.3 #34	9.7 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.