Washington @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Michigan State

Weather at kickoff71°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Washington

2-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Michigan State

2-0 · Power #98

final

Closing spread

WASH -15

✓ WASH W

Total

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

WASH 34–21 MSU

✓ WASH (83%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWASH -15

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWASH -15

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWASH -15

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 15-point road favorite at MSU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 41–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 57, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.8 against an average line of 14; 59.2 points a game (usually 55.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MSST @ ARIZ 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	39–17	W	U58
Close	UNC @ BC 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar spread	-14.5	26–22	L	U52.5
Close	OSU @ RUTG 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-15	52–13	W	O58
Loose	WAKE @ VAN 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-13.5	45–25	W	O65.25
Loose	ALA @ FLA 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14	31–29	L	P60
Loose	BYU @ CCU 2020 · Week 14 · loose · similar team ratings	-10.5	17–22	L	U62.5
Loose	BSU @ AFA 2020 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-13.5	49–30	W	O49
Loose	UTAH @ ASU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-16.75	34–13	W	U54
Loose	OSU @ PSU 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-15.5	44–31	L	O60.5
Loose	CCU @ BUFF 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & total	-14	28–25	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WASH WP	1-0-1	100%	—	1-0-1
MSU WW	2-0	100%	2-0	—

Venue/role: WASH away, as favorite; MSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH –U	0-1	0%	2-0
MSU –O	1-0	100%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 45% of games with totals 53–61 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASHlast 2	2-0 100%	1-0-1 100%	0-1 0%
MSUlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WASH+9.9 →+14.2▲ 4.3#7

MSU+7.2 →+2.7▼ 4.5#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

WASH

Longer bar = better

MSU

Offense

◀ WASH better

#34

#38

Defense

MSU better ▶

#12

+0.5 #46

Turnovers

◀ WASH better

0.0 #66

62 plays #113

Pace

MSU faster ▶

63 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WASH has the ball

Even matchup

	WASH off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	49.5 #6	10.5 #13	Even
Yards / play	9.20 #2	3.43 #2	Even
PPA / play	+0.52 #4	−0.14 #13	Even
Success rate	59% #4	32% #20	Even

When MSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MSU off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #32	14.5 #32	Even
Yards / play	6.97 #23	4.90 #55	MSU
PPA / play	+0.27 #38	0.00 #51	Even
Success rate	47% #42	31% #15	WASH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 73 FBS teams

WASH scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	7.0	18.0	25.0	10.5	14.0	24.5
MSU allowed	0.0	3.5	3.5	0.0	7.0	7.0

MSU scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	3.5	10.0	13.5	14.0	10.5	24.5
WASH allowed	4.5	3.0	7.5	3.5	3.5	7.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.