California @ Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Washington · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F8 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

California

2-1 · Power #57

final

Final

Washington

3-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

WASH -20.5

✓ WASH W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 91 pts

Model before kickoff

CAL 19–38 WASH

✓ WASH (92%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWASH -20.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWASH -20.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWASH -20.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 20.5-point home favorite against CAL, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 59–32; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 91 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19 against an average line of 19.7; 58.2 points a game (usually 56.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MICH vs RUTG 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-20.25	20–13	L	U50
Close	OSU vs PSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	33–24	L	U60.5
Close	CIN vs UCF 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-21.5	56–21	W	O56
Close	OSU vs WISC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-19	52–21	W	O56.5
Close	ALA vs ARK 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-20.5	42–35	L	O58.5
Close	OU vs WVU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-17.5	16–13	L	U56.5
Close	MISS vs GT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-17	48–23	W	O61.5
Loose	OU vs NEB 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-22.5	23–16	L	U62.5
Loose	TENN vs MIZ 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-19	66–24	W	O57.5
Loose	ALA vs MSST 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-21.25	30–6	W	U61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	2-0
WASH WPW	2-0-1	100%	1-0-1	2-0-1

Venue/role: CAL away, as underdog; WASH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL –UU	0-2	0%	2-1
WASH –UU	0-2	0%	3-0

Went over in Q2. Of 54 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 43% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CALlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	0-2 0%
WASHlast 3	3-0 100%	2-0-1 100%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL+15.6 →+5.8▼ 9.8#35

WASH+9.9 →+17.8▲ 7.9#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CAL

Longer bar = better

WASH

#74

Offense

WASH better ▶

#46

Defense

WASH better ▶

#17

+1.7 #8

Turnovers

◀ CAL better

+0.3 #51

80 plays #2

Pace

◀ CAL faster

65 plays #92

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: WASH defense

	CAL off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #51	12.0 #12	WASH
Yards / play	5.49 #84	4.69 #36	WASH
PPA / play	+0.14 #70	−0.08 #15	WASH
Success rate	40% #91	30% #5	WASH

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: WASH offense

	WASH off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	46.7 #4	17.3 #31	WASH
Yards / play	9.46 #1	4.68 #34	WASH
PPA / play	+0.59 #2	0.00 #44	WASH
Success rate	62% #1	41% #75	WASH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	5.7 #73	13.3 #18	19.0 #34	9.7 #23	4.3 #103	14.0 #60
WASH allowed	3.0 #37	2.0 #4	5.0 #4	2.3 #20	4.7 #44	7.0 #21

WASH scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	9.3 #23	19.0 #1	28.3 #3	9.0 #33	9.3 #32	18.3 #24
CAL allowed	5.7 #93	9.3 #98	15.0 #95	0.0 #1	2.3 #10	2.3 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.