Arizona State @ California: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at California · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F5 mphgusts 14Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Arizona State

1-3 · Power #101

final

Final

California

2-2 · Power #57

▲ winner

Closing spread

CAL -13

✓ ASU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

ASU 18–32 CAL

✓ CAL (84%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCAL -13

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCAL -13

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCAL -13

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CAL as a 13-point home favorite against ASU, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CAL won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 13.4; 46.7 points a game (usually 55.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MD vs RUTG 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	37–0	W	U48.5
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5
Very close	VT vs DUKE 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13	48–17	W	O50.5
Very close	BSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-13.75	23–13	L	U48.5
Very close	APP vs TROY 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	32–28	L	O52
Very close	WYO vs HAW 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13	14–38	L	O48.5
Very close	UL vs GASO 2020 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-11.5	20–18	L	U49
Very close	MINN vs ILL 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	6–14	L	U44
Very close	MIZ vs VAN 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-14	17–14	L	U49
Very close	UAB vs WKU 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	37–14	W	O44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU LLLW	1-3	25%	—	1-2
CAL WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: ASU away, as underdog; CAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU UUUO	1-3	25%	1-3
CAL –UUO	1-2	33%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 56% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASUlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%
CALlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU+0.4 →−9.7▼ 10.1#113

CAL+15.6 →+4.3▼ 11.3#43

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ASU

Longer bar = better

CAL

#125

Offense

CAL better ▶

#73

#94

Defense

Even

#92

−2.5 #136

Turnovers

CAL better ▶

+0.8 #30

66 plays #80

Pace

CAL faster ▶

81 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: CAL defense

	ASU off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	16.8 #128	27.8 #96	CAL
Yards / play	4.68 #126	5.67 #82	CAL
PPA / play	−0.02 #121	+0.10 #76	CAL
Success rate	36% #126	45% #113	Even

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: CAL offense

	CAL off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #50	29.8 #106	CAL
Yards / play	5.66 #73	5.55 #75	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #80	+0.16 #101	CAL
Success rate	40% #90	43% #94	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ASU scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	5.3 #75	7.0 #92	12.3 #84	2.0 #126	2.5 #127	4.5 #131
CAL allowed	10.3 #124	12.3 #122	22.5 #132	1.8 #10	3.5 #20	5.3 #9

CAL scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	5.8 #69	11.5 #32	17.3 #51	9.0 #28	6.5 #74	15.5 #47
ASU allowed	6.0 #91	7.5 #75	13.5 #85	7.5 #102	8.8 #105	16.3 #117

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.