Washington @ Arizona: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Arizona · Conference game

Weather at kickoff86°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Washington

4-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Arizona

3-1 · Power #18

final

Closing spread

WASH -19.5

✓ ARIZ W

Total

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

WASH 41–22 ARIZ

✓ WASH (91%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWASH -19.5

Total66

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWASH -19.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close66

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWASH -19.5

Total66

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 19.5-point road favorite at ARIZ, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 31–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 66, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.1 against an average line of 18.8; 61.1 points a game (usually 55.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MISS @ GT 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-17	42–0	W	U62.75
Loose	OSU @ PSU 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & season form	-15.5	44–31	L	O60.5
Loose	ALA @ ARK 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17	49–26	W	O61
Loose	TENN @ SC 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-22.5	38–63	L	O67
Loose	OSU @ NEB 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-14	26–17	L	U67.75
Loose	ALA @ TENN 2020 · Week 8 · loose · similar total & rest	-21.5	48–17	W	U66.5
Loose	CLEM @ VT 2020 · Week 14 · loose · similar total & situation	-23.5	45–10	W	U67
Loose	OSU @ IU 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & spread	-21	54–7	W	O59
Loose	ALA @ AUB 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-20.5	24–22	L	U57
Loose	WASH @ MSU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-15	41–7	W	U57.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WASH WPWW	3-0-1	100%	1-0	3-0-1
ARIZ WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: WASH away, as favorite; ARIZ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH –UUO	1-2	33%	4-0
ARIZ UUUU	0-4	0%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 39% of games with totals 62–70 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASHlast 4	4-0 100%	3-0-1 100%	1-2 33%
ARIZlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	0-4 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WASH+9.9 →+18.5▲ 8.6#5

ARIZ+1.3 →+1.9▲ 0.6#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

WASH

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

Offense

◀ WASH better

#37

#24

Defense

Even

#33

+0.8 #26

Turnovers

◀ WASH better

−1.3 #132

64 plays #91

Pace

Even

64 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: WASH offense

	WASH off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	49.8 #3	16.0 #22	Even
Yards / play	9.23 #1	4.98 #37	WASH
PPA / play	+0.60 #1	−0.04 #29	WASH
Success rate	63% #1	38% #45	WASH

When ARIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	ARIZ off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #74	17.0 #24	WASH
Yards / play	7.04 #18	5.11 #42	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.20 #49	−0.08 #15	WASH
Success rate	55% #5	33% #13	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WASH scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	13.0 #5	19.5 #1	32.5 #1	8.5 #34	8.8 #40	17.3 #33
ARIZ allowed	4.3 #57	3.3 #9	7.5 #25	3.5 #38	3.3 #13	6.8 #17

ARIZ scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	1.8 #130	8.8 #71	10.5 #110	11.3 #7	6.8 #70	18.0 #21
WASH allowed	3.8 #47	3.0 #7	6.8 #18	3.5 #38	6.8 #76	10.3 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.