Arizona @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at USC · Conference game

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Arizona

3-2 · Power #18

final

Final

USC

5-0 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -22

✓ ARIZ W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 24–45 USC

✓ USC (94%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSC -22

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSC -22

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSC -22

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 22-point home favorite against ARIZ, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 43–41; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22 against an average line of 20.9; 70.2 points a game (usually 55.5).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OSU vs MD 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-21.75	66–17	W	O71.5
Very close	OSU vs MSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-19.5	56–7	W	U70.5
Very close	OU vs BAY 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-23	27–14	L	U61
Very close	USC vs CAL 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21	41–35	L	O61
Close	ALA vs ARK 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-20.5	42–35	L	O58.5
Close	UCF vs TULN 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-21	51–34	L	O71
Close	OSU vs IU 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	42–35	L	O67.5
Close	OSU vs PUR 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-19	59–31	W	O65
Close	MISS vs TLSA 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	35–27	L	U66.5
Close	ORE vs COLO 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	42–6	W	U70

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ WWWLW	4-1	80%	1-1	2-0
USC LWWLL	2-3	40%	2-1	2-3

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ UUUUU	0-5	0%	3-2
USC O–UOO	3-1	75%	5-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZlast 5	3-2 60%	4-1 80%	0-5 0%
USClast 5	5-0 100%	2-3 40%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ+1.3 →+1.3–#52

USC+9.1 →+16.2▲ 7.1#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

USC

#40

Offense

USC better ▶

#56

Defense

Even

#69

−1.0 #130

Turnovers

USC better ▶

+0.8 #20

65 plays #89

Pace

◀ ARIZ faster

62 plays #110

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #81	24.2 #65	Even
Yards / play	6.58 #30	5.54 #70	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.19 #45	+0.13 #87	ARIZ
Success rate	55% #4	39% #54	ARIZ

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	53.6 #1	19.0 #34	USC
Yards / play	8.89 #1	5.44 #63	USC
PPA / play	+0.51 #3	+0.04 #49	USC
Success rate	55% #6	42% #78	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	1.4 #133	9.0 #62	10.4 #114	10.4 #13	6.8 #73	17.2 #27
USC allowed	2.8 #24	7.4 #70	10.2 #46	5.6 #68	8.4 #104	14.0 #93

USC scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	15.4 #2	16.6 #2	32.0 #1	9.6 #23	12.0 #5	21.6 #5
ARIZ allowed	6.2 #95	4.0 #14	10.2 #46	4.2 #40	3.2 #12	7.4 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.