Oklahoma vs Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · Neutral site · Conference game

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Oklahoma

5-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Texas

5-0 · Power #8

final

Closing spread

TEX -5

✓ OU W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

OU 26–30 TEX

✗ TEX (60%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTEX -5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 5-point neutral-site favorite against OU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: OU won 34–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5.6 against an average line of 4.3; 63.2 points a game (usually 54).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TA&M vs ARK 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	10–20	L	U47
Close	OU vs TEX 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	55–48	W	O65.5
Loose	UGA vs ALA 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-3	33–18	W	U53
Loose	UGA vs ALA 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.25	24–41	L	O48.75
Loose	UGA vs OSU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-5.25	42–41	L	O62
Loose	CLEM vs OSU 2020 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-7	28–49	L	O68.5
Loose	USC vs UTAH 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-2.75	24–47	L	O67.75
Loose	CLEM vs TENN 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-4	14–31	L	U61.5
Loose	OU vs ISU 2020 · Week 16 · loose · similar spread	-5.5	27–21	W	U59.5
Loose	KSU vs TCU 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-1	31–28	W	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
OU WWWWW	5-0	100%	—	—
TEX LWLWW	3-2	60%	—	2-2

Venue/role: OU neutral, as underdog; TEX neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU –UOUO	2-2	50%	5-0
TEX UOUUU	1-4	20%	5-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OUlast 5	5-0 100%	5-0 100%	2-2 50%
TEXlast 5	5-0 100%	3-2 60%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

OU 52–62 TEX (5 tied) TEX leads · 119 games since 1902 · OU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OU+20.5 →+20.6▲ 0.1#1

TEX+8.6 →+18.7▲ 10.1#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

TEX

#10

Offense

◀ OU better

#30

#14

Defense

Even

#13

+1.6 #5

Turnovers

◀ OU better

+0.8 #23

74 plays #13

Pace

◀ OU faster

69 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OU has the ball

Even matchup

	OU off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	47.4 #3	12.8 #12	Even
Yards / play	6.87 #21	4.71 #22	Even
PPA / play	+0.42 #8	−0.08 #16	Even
Success rate	54% #8	29% #2	Even

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #29	10.8 #5	OU
Yards / play	6.89 #20	4.62 #19	Even
PPA / play	+0.30 #19	−0.11 #7	Even
Success rate	44% #50	35% #23	OU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

OU scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	18.2 #1	11.2 #28	29.4 #4	11.2 #6	6.8 #68	18.0 #21
TEX allowed	2.6 #21	3.2 #7	5.8 #8	4.0 #41	3.0 #9	7.0 #19

TEX scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	6.0 #65	10.0 #52	16.0 #59	8.8 #32	11.2 #8	20.0 #9
OU allowed	3.2 #36	4.8 #34	8.0 #28	1.2 #6	1.6 #2	2.8 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.