Sam Houston @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Thu, Oct 5, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Liberty · Conference game

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Sam Houston

0-4 · Power #114

final

Final

Liberty

4-0 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -17.5

✓ SHSU W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

SHSU 13–31 LIB

✓ LIB (90%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -17.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLIB -17.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -17.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 17.5-point home favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 21–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12 against an average line of 17.2; 49.2 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3.

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU vs NIU 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-18.5	30–27	L	U64.5
Close	USA vs ULM 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-17	41–34	L	O51
Close	ARIZ vs UTEP 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread	-18.25	31–10	W	U57.25
Close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Close	SDSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-19.5	31–7	W	U42.5
Close	UTSA vs UTEP 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-16.5	34–31	L	O56.5
Close	USA vs CMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-16	30–34	L	O47.5
Close	UTSA vs RICE 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-17	45–0	W	U53
Close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Close	CCU vs USA 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-17	23–6	P	U57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU WWLP	2-1-1	67%	1-1	2-1-1
LIB LWWW	3-1	75%	1-1	3-1

Venue/role: SHSU away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU –UOO	2-1	67%	0-4
LIB –UOU	1-2	33%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSUlast 4	0-4 0%	2-1-1 67%	2-1 67%
LIBlast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SHSU 1–2 LIB LIB leads · 3 games since 2023 · LIB has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−3.3 →−11.6▼ 8.3#122

LIB+3.0 →+3.1▲ 0.1#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

SHSU

Longer bar = better

LIB

#135

Offense

LIB better ▶

#24

#58

Defense

LIB better ▶

#34

−0.5 #105

Turnovers

LIB better ▶

+1.8 #3

61 plays #121

Pace

LIB faster ▶

69 plays #44

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	SHSU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	9.5 #135	18.5 #31	LIB
Yards / play	3.61 #135	4.96 #36	LIB
PPA / play	−0.14 #136	−0.08 #17	LIB
Success rate	29% #135	39% #52	LIB

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #13	25.0 #71	LIB
Yards / play	7.26 #14	5.28 #54	LIB
PPA / play	+0.24 #36	+0.05 #56	Even
Success rate	48% #33	39% #49	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	5.3 #80	1.8 #133	7.0 #128	0.8 #133	1.8 #131	2.5 #133
LIB allowed	3.3 #37	9.5 #101	12.8 #72	4.3 #48	1.5 #1	5.8 #9

LIB scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	9.5 #25	14.3 #10	23.8 #8	12.0 #5	4.3 #110	16.3 #37
SHSU allowed	6.0 #83	4.3 #29	10.3 #49	3.5 #38	9.5 #117	13.0 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.