Kansas State @ Oklahoma State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Fri, Oct 6, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Oklahoma State · Conference game

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Kansas State

3-1 · Power #11

final

Final

Oklahoma State

2-2 · Power #43

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -10

✓ OKST W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

KSU 31–20 OKST

✗ KSU (78%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -10

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKSU -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -10

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 10-point road favorite at OKST, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: OKST won 29–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.1 against an average line of 9.5; 55.1 points a game (usually 55).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MD @ IU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-11	38–33	L	O63.5
Close	MIAMI @ NCST 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-10	44–41	L	O58.5
Close	ILL @ NEB 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	26–9	W	U50.5
Close	FRES @ HAW 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-10.75	24–27	L	U64.25
Close	UCLA @ ASU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-11	50–36	W	O67
Close	UTAH @ WSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.25	21–17	L	U56.5
Close	FRES @ SJSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-7	40–9	W	U52.5
Close	OKST @ TTU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-10	23–0	W	U55
Close	APP @ GAST 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-10	45–16	W	O54.5
Close	APP @ TROY 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-10	45–7	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU WWLW	3-1	75%	0-1	3-1
OKST LWLL	1-3	25%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: KSU away, as favorite; OKST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU UOOO	3-1	75%	3-1
OKST UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSUlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	3-1 75%
OKSTlast 4	2-2 50%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+2.0 →+10.2▲ 8.2#21

OKST−1.5 →−4.9▼ 3.4#86

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

KSU

Longer bar = better

OKST

#25

Offense

◀ KSU better

#102

#39

Defense

◀ KSU better

#67

0.0 #76

Turnovers

◀ KSU better

−0.8 #113

74 plays #13

Pace

◀ KSU faster

70 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU offense

	KSU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	39.5 #13	23.8 #58	KSU
Yards / play	6.49 #33	5.65 #77	KSU
PPA / play	+0.27 #25	+0.17 #102	KSU
Success rate	48% #28	37% #31	Even

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: KSU defense

	OKST off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #104	18.5 #32	KSU
Yards / play	4.94 #118	5.36 #58	KSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #82	+0.03 #45	KSU
Success rate	39% #105	35% #22	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	7.0 #50	15.8 #4	22.8 #12	7.5 #50	9.3 #27	16.8 #36
OKST allowed	6.0 #83	8.5 #91	14.5 #87	3.5 #40	5.8 #59	9.3 #40

OKST scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	3.5 #108	6.5 #103	10.0 #117	2.5 #128	9.5 #24	12.0 #85
KSU allowed	5.0 #75	6.0 #46	11.0 #57	1.8 #10	5.8 #59	7.5 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.