Kansas State @ Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Texas Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Kansas State

3-2 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Texas Tech

3-3 · Power #45

final

Closing spread

TTU -0.5

✓ KSU W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

KSU 29–30 TTU

✗ TTU (53%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseTTU -0.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTTU -0.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseTTU -0.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 0.5-point home favorite against KSU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 38–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1 against an average line of 1.9; 57.6 points a game (usually 54.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF vs CIN 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	25–21	W	U55.5
Very close	UCLA vs ORE 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	31–34	L	O61.5
Very close	TTU vs BAY 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	17–45	L	O61
Very close	SMU vs CIN 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-1	13–42	L	U57
Very close	KSU vs OKST 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	48–0	W	U57.5
Very close	TULN vs UCF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	31–38	L	O54.5
Very close	LOU vs UK 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3	21–52	L	O57.75
Very close	TULN vs ECU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	24–9	W	U55.5
Very close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	38–7	W	U58.5
Very close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	35–45	L	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU WWLWL	3-2	60%	0-2	—
TTU LWLWW	3-3	50%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: KSU away, as underdog; TTU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU UOOO–	3-1	75%	3-2
TTU UUUO–	1-3	25%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 76 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSUlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	3-1 75%
TTUlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+2.0 →+7.7▲ 5.7#28

TTU+2.7 →+6.6▲ 3.9#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

KSU

Longer bar = better

TTU

#39

Offense

◀ KSU better

#62

#40

Defense

Even

#38

−0.6 #111

Turnovers

TTU better ▶

0.0 #72

74 plays #16

Pace

Even

72 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Even matchup

	KSU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #23	23.0 #53	KSU
Yards / play	6.24 #44	5.03 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #50	−0.01 #30	Even
Success rate	46% #39	38% #37	Even

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: KSU defense

	TTU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.2 #33	20.6 #40	Even
Yards / play	5.56 #79	5.37 #56	KSU
PPA / play	+0.13 #70	+0.02 #43	KSU
Success rate	43% #65	35% #20	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	5.6 #76	14.0 #8	19.6 #17	7.6 #45	8.6 #32	16.2 #29
TTU allowed	6.0 #90	6.0 #43	12.0 #67	1.2 #5	7.3 #86	8.5 #25

TTU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	11.5 #10	6.7 #104	18.2 #34	6.3 #68	7.5 #53	13.8 #61
KSU allowed	6.0 #90	6.8 #62	12.8 #77	2.6 #15	5.2 #47	7.8 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.