BYU @ TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at TCU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F14 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

BYU

4-1 · Power #86

final

Final

TCU

3-3 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

TCU -5.5

✓ TCU W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 22–29 TCU

✓ TCU (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseTCU -5.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTCU -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 52% (60 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseTCU -5.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 5.5-point home favorite against BYU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 44–11; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 52.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 5.4; 59.7 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU vs WVU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	17–29	L	U58
Very close	CIN vs ECU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	27–25	L	O51.5
Very close	LOU vs JMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	34–10	W	U53.5
Very close	MINN vs MD 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-4	34–16	W	U53
Very close	MIA vs VT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	38–26	W	O55.5
Very close	WASH vs ORST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-4.5	24–21	L	U53.5
Very close	USC vs UTAH 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	26–42	L	O52.75
Close	LSU vs SC 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	52–24	W	O54.5
Close	UVA vs BC 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar total & spread	-6.5	43–32	W	O54
Close	TTU vs HOU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-8.5	49–28	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU LLWLW	2-3	40%	1-1	1-1
TCU LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	2-4

Venue/role: BYU away, as underdog; TCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU –OOOO	4-0	100%	4-1
TCU UUUU–	0-4	0%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 88 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 40% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYUlast 5	4-1 80%	2-3 40%	4-0 100%
TCUlast 6	3-3 50%	2-4 33%	0-4 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU+3.3 →−0.6▼ 3.9#66

TCU−3.1 →+6.6▲ 9.7#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

BYU

Longer bar = better

TCU

#99

Offense

TCU better ▶

#43

#61

Defense

Even

#57

+0.8 #22

Turnovers

◀ BYU better

−0.5 #106

61 plays #121

Pace

TCU faster ▶

78 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: TCU defense

	BYU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #60	22.0 #46	Even
Yards / play	5.22 #104	5.24 #46	TCU
PPA / play	+0.05 #102	+0.09 #67	TCU
Success rate	36% #129	42% #70	TCU

When TCU has the ball

Even matchup

	TCU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #53	22.4 #48	Even
Yards / play	6.08 #55	5.45 #64	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #40	+0.09 #66	TCU
Success rate	48% #25	41% #64	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	8.2 #30	9.0 #61	17.2 #40	6.8 #62	7.0 #67	13.8 #69
TCU allowed	4.5 #58	6.7 #58	11.2 #58	6.3 #83	4.5 #30	10.8 #49

TCU scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	5.8 #72	10.8 #26	16.7 #48	6.0 #76	8.7 #31	14.7 #55
BYU allowed	6.2 #96	4.0 #13	10.2 #45	7.6 #101	4.6 #33	12.2 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.