TCU @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Kansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F8 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

TCU

4-3 · Power #30

final

Final

Kansas State

4-2 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -5.5

✓ KSU W

Total

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

TCU 26–31 KSU

✓ KSU (65%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -5.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKSU -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (76 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -5.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 5.5-point home favorite against TCU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 41–3; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 60, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.2 against an average line of 5.9; 56 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU vs TEX 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	30–7	W	U59.5
Very close	NCST vs UNC 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	34–30	L	O61.25
Very close	UTAH vs UCLA 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.25	44–24	W	O60.5
Very close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	17–26	L	U58
Very close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	28–13	W	U57
Very close	TEX vs WVU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-7.5	38–20	W	U61
Very close	FRES vs BSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	14–40	L	U61
Very close	ORE vs ORST 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	38–29	W	O61.25
Very close	SMU vs UCF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	55–28	W	O61.5
Very close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	38–7	W	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU WWLLW	3-4	43%	1-1	—
KSU WLWLW	4-2	67%	3-0	3-2

Venue/role: TCU away, as underdog; KSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU UUU–O	1-4	20%	4-3
KSU OOO–O	4-1	80%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 42% of games with totals 56–64 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCUlast 7	4-3 57%	3-4 43%	1-4 20%
KSUlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU−3.1 →+8.3▲ 11.4#25

KSU+2.0 →+9.9▲ 7.9#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TCU

Longer bar = better

KSU

#36

Offense

Even

#33

#46

Defense

Even

#44

−0.4 #102

Turnovers

KSU better ▶

0.0 #70

79 plays #1

Pace

◀ TCU faster

72 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Even matchup

	TCU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	33.1 #40	20.7 #42	Even
Yards / play	6.19 #47	5.51 #65	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #37	+0.02 #35	Even
Success rate	49% #19	38% #34	Even

When KSU has the ball

Even matchup

	KSU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	36.2 #21	20.4 #38	Even
Yards / play	6.30 #41	5.03 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #41	+0.06 #55	Even
Success rate	47% #27	41% #59	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	7.0 #46	11.7 #18	18.7 #27	6.6 #61	7.9 #45	14.4 #53
KSU allowed	5.0 #69	8.0 #85	13.0 #76	3.3 #21	4.3 #27	7.7 #15

KSU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	6.3 #62	12.8 #9	19.2 #17	8.7 #25	8.3 #35	17.0 #23
TCU allowed	3.9 #41	6.9 #60	10.7 #49	5.9 #72	3.9 #17	9.7 #35

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.