New Mexico State @ UTEP: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Wed, Oct 18, 2023, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at UTEP · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

4-3 · Power #84

▲ winner

Final

UTEP

2-5 · Power #115

final

Closing spread

NMSU -3

✓ NMSU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 26–23 UTEP

✓ NMSU (57%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNMSU -3

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNMSU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNMSU -3

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NMSU as a 3-point road favorite at UTEP, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NMSU won 28–7; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.5 against an average line of 2.8; 49.1 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5
Very close	UTEP @ USM 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.25	26–13	W	U46.25
Very close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Very close	TROY @ GASO 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	13–20	L	U52
Very close	EMU @ BGSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	55–24	W	O49.5
Very close	FAU @ UTEP 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	21–24	L	U50.75
Very close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	20–10	W	U50
Very close	LIB @ BUFF 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.75	55–27	W	O54
Very close	LT @ UTEP 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1	24–10	W	U50.5
Very close	TROY @ USA 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	29–0	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU LWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	3-1
UTEP LLLLW	2-5	29%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: NMSU away, as favorite; UTEP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU UUU–U	2-4	33%	4-3
UTEP OUOUU	2-5	29%	2-5

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 57% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSUlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	2-4 33%
UTEPlast 7	2-5 29%	2-5 29%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−6.9 →−8.5▼ 1.6#108

UTEP−4.4 →−11.5▼ 7.1#118

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

NMSU

Longer bar = better

UTEP

#26

Offense

◀ NMSU better

#96

#85

Defense

Even

#93

−0.4 #101

Turnovers

◀ NMSU better

−0.9 #127

58 plays #132

Pace

UTEP faster ▶

66 plays #84

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU offense

	NMSU off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #59	26.1 #74	Even
Yards / play	7.66 #5	6.14 #111	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.29 #16	+0.18 #107	NMSU
Success rate	48% #24	42% #78	NMSU

When UTEP has the ball

Even matchup

	UTEP off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #128	23.1 #53	NMSU
Yards / play	5.48 #85	5.85 #87	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #77	+0.15 #92	Even
Success rate	40% #94	45% #108	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	5.9 #70	11.6 #21	17.4 #45	3.3 #123	9.3 #22	12.6 #82
UTEP allowed	6.4 #98	7.4 #79	13.9 #83	6.4 #88	5.9 #59	12.3 #70

UTEP scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	6.0 #67	4.9 #121	10.9 #110	2.4 #128	4.4 #117	6.9 #126
NMSU allowed	3.4 #34	7.1 #68	10.6 #48	5.1 #57	7.4 #87	12.6 #77

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.