Rice @ Tulsa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Thu, Oct 19, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Tulsa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Rice

3-3 · Power #90

▲ winner

Final

Tulsa

3-3 · Power #118

final

Closing spread

TLSA -3

✓ RICE W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

RICE 26–30 TLSA

✗ TLSA (59%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTLSA -3

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTLSA -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 58%, covered 46% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTLSA -3

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TLSA as a 3-point home favorite against RICE, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: RICE won 42–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 52 points stayed under 56.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.6 against an average line of 3.6; 47 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Very close	APP vs CCU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	24–27	L	U59
Very close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Very close	FAU vs RICE 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-5	17–14	L	U54.5
Very close	LOU vs SYR 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	41–3	W	U55.5
Very close	MEM vs ECU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	29–30	L	O58.75
Very close	SJSU vs USU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	17–48	L	O58
Very close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RICE WWLWL	4-2	67%	1-1	2-0
TLSA PLWWW	3-2-1	60%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: RICE away, as underdog; TLSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICE OOOU–	3-2	60%	3-3
TLSA UOUO–	2-3	40%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 51% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICElast 6	3-3 50%	4-2 67%	3-2 60%
TLSAlast 6	3-3 50%	3-2-1 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RICE−10.1 →−6.5▲ 3.6#97

TLSA+3.9 →−4.9▼ 8.8#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

RICE

Longer bar = better

TLSA

#38

Offense

◀ RICE better

#78

#84

Defense

Even

#91

−0.8 #122

Turnovers

TLSA better ▶

−0.5 #105

65 plays #88

Pace

TLSA faster ▶

71 plays #38

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: RICE offense

	RICE off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #42	29.3 #96	RICE
Yards / play	6.12 #52	5.92 #92	RICE
PPA / play	+0.25 #25	+0.14 #90	RICE
Success rate	46% #33	43% #86	RICE

When TLSA has the ball

Even matchup

	TLSA off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #88	30.3 #103	Even
Yards / play	5.48 #86	5.87 #89	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #79	+0.08 #62	Even
Success rate	43% #60	43% #82	TLSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

RICE scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	12.7 #5	5.8 #114	18.5 #30	5.2 #88	6.5 #69	11.7 #94
TLSA allowed	11.0 #130	4.7 #21	15.7 #100	9.5 #125	4.2 #26	13.7 #88

TLSA scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	3.2 #118	10.5 #35	13.7 #80	4.3 #110	8.0 #43	12.3 #85
RICE allowed	2.2 #11	9.8 #106	12.0 #66	7.2 #93	9.0 #111	16.2 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.